SOLICITATION NOTICE
B -- Radiation Dose Estimates from Plutonium Intakes
- Notice Date
- 5/11/2004
- Notice Type
- Solicitation Notice
- NAICS
- 541511
— Custom Computer Programming Services
- Contracting Office
- Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Acquisition and Assistance Field Branch (Cincinnati), 4676 Columbia Parkway M/S C-4, Cincinnati, OH, 45226
- ZIP Code
- 45226
- Solicitation Number
- 2004-N-01337
- Response Due
- 6/28/2004
- Archive Date
- 7/13/2004
- Point of Contact
- Dwight Favors, Supervisory Contract Specialist, Phone (513)533-8137, Fax (513)533-8283, - Patricia Rose, Procurement Technician, Phone (513)533-8256, Fax (513)533-8283,
- E-Mail Address
-
dyf3@cdc.gov, par2@cdc.gov
- Description
- RADIATION DOSE ESTIMATES FROM PLUTONIUM INTAKES 1. OBJECTIVE The main objective of the proposed work is to develop dose assessment methods and computational tools based on recently available toxicological information on plutonium and to estimate the organ doses for use in epidemiologic studies. The purpose this work is to provide support to epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to plutonium by inhalation, ingestion, or open wounds by: (1) estimating radiation organ doses from plutonium; and (2) quantifying uncertainties in dose estimates. The computational tools consist of computer software that allows the user to derive the intake of plutonium based on bioassay data (e.g., measured urine or fecal excretion rate), and then, by working from the intake forward, to reconstruct organ doses using contemporary biokinetic and dosimetric models. The computer software will provide the capability of individual and batch (cohort) analysis, resulting in annual and committed organ doses with uncertainties. Updates of the current ICRP plutonium systemic model are already emerging by analysis of data coming from two recent plutonium injection studies (the Harwell study; Talbot et al. 1993, 1997; Newton et al. 1998 and the NRPB study; Popplewell et al. 1994; Ham and Harrison 2000), from historical exposure of the Mayak workers (Khokhryakov et al. 1995, 2000; Suslova et al. 1996) and from the U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries (e.g., Ehrhart and Filipy 2001). A number of modifications to the ICRP biokinetic model are now being proposed for addressing the biases described above (Eckerman KF 2003; personal communication). A post-ICRP systemic model has been developed and tested. The post-ICRP model is expected to be more accurate than the ICRP model, but the ICRP systemic model is still considered the ?gold standard?. Thus, both models will be available for analysis of exposures. The new post-ICRP model will be incorporated in the computer codes. While other similar computer tools are available, this work represents an advancement of the state-of-the-art bioassay analysis and dose estimation for exposure to plutonium in the following areas: 1) The computer codes performing intake determination by regression techniques can work in a batch mode, allowing analysis of multiple cases in the same run. This feature is useful for performing multiple runs for the same individual (e.g., for different exposure dates, or particle sizes of inhaled plutonium), or for performing runs for a set of individuals with similar exposures. 2) A new post-ICRP biokinetic model based on analysis of recent plutonium data from the Harwell, NRPB, Mayak and USTUR studies, will be incorporated in our computer codes. The structure of the current biokinetic model will be modified by adding or removing compartments and by adding or removing transfers among various model compartments. 3) In addition to the uncertainty in the doses to the lung tissues, the computer codes developed here will quantify the uncertainty in the doses to organs other than lung (e.g., bone surfaces, bone marrow, liver, kidney, bladder, and other soft tissues in general). 4. PROPOSED TASKS, DELIVERABLES, AND SCHEDULE TASK 1 ? Determination of plutonium intake and organ doses The objective of this task is to develop computer software that allows determination of the intake of plutonium based on available bioassay data (e.g., urine, feces, whole-body or lung counts) and then, starting from the determined intake, allows estimation doses for all organs of interest. The most recent ICRP and the post-ICRP biokinetic models will be used to determine plutonium intake and to estimate organ doses. The code will allow the user to analyze either one individual or multiple individuals (batch mode) at a time. The activity of plutonium inhaled, ingested or taken from a contaminated wound will be determined assuming that the intake was either acute or continuous. Both committed and annual organ doses will be reported. To operate the code the user will provide the necessary information regarding exposure such as type of bioassay, number of data bioassay points, the actual bioassay data points, assumed exposure date, exposure characteristics (e.g., particle size and chemical form for inhalation). The software produced in Task 1 will represent the first version of the computer code for determination of intakes and dose estimation. In this version, the uncertainties in the organ doses will be determined using published uncertainty ranges (Huston 1995, Farfan et al. 2003; Huston 2003; Goosens et al., 1998), with an emphasis on lung and red bone marrow doses. Note that the published studies on uncertainty ranges are either incomplete (e.g., Huston 1995, Farfan et al. 2003 and Huston et al. 2003 considered doses to only the respiratory tract tissues), or inconclusive (i.e., the experts included in the European Community expert elicitation do not agree regarding the magnitude of the uncertainty in the doses from plutonium - Goossens et al. 1998). Also, all studies on the uncertainty in doses from plutonium refer to the current ICRP biokinetic models (or earlier version), and not to the more recent post-ICRP model. A detailed quantification of uncertainties in organ doses is the subject of Task 2 presented below. Task 1 will have the following sub-tasks: Sub-Task 1.A Development of a biokinetic database Derivation of intake from an exposure to plutonium is performed using the intake retention and excretion functions (per unit intake ? IRF/IEF). The IRF/IEF functions can be calculated for any exposure conditions, by using the biokinetic model. This sub-task will generate a database containing the IRF/IEF functions for given exposure conditions (e.g., inhalation of Type M and S plutonium attached to particles sizes 1 to 10 microns). The intake determination portion of the computer code will use the IRF/IEF functions from this database to fit the bioassay data. Note that the IRF/IEF functions for wound contamination depend on the treatment history of the wound. A set of IRF/IEF functions will be provided to represent instantaneous and continuous transfers of plutonium to the blood stream. The continuous transfer to the blood stream can be modeled assuming that the plutonium source was removed from the wound after, for instance, 30 days, 60 days or one year after the accident, and of course it can be modeled assuming that the source of plutonium has never been removed from the wound. Sub-Task 1.B Development of a database of organ doses per unit intake Plutonium organ doses are estimated starting with the intake determined from bioassay data analysis by using the ICRP and post-ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models. This task will pre-calculate a set of organ doses per unit intake for the same exposure conditions as those used in Sub-Task 1.A. The organ dose from a determined intake will simply be estimated as the intake multiplied by the dose per unit intake. This will ensure an efficient way of estimating doses, by eliminating the need of running the biokinetic and dosimetry codes for each exposure case analyzed. The organ doses per unit intake included in the database will use published uncertainty ranges (Huston 1995, Farfan et al. 2003; Huston et al. 2003; Goosens et al. 1998). Sub-Task 1.C Development of the computer code for intake determination and dose estimation This sub-task focuses on the actual programming of the computer code to be used for intake determination from bioassay data analysis and estimation of organ doses from the determined intake. This code will make use of the two databases developed for Sub-Tasks 1 and 2. Weighted least-square regression will be used to determine intake. This method is equivalent to the maximum likelihood method. Regression techniques are useful for routine determination of intake in cases of single acute exposures or constant continuous exposures. The equations used to derive the intake are similar to the ones used in the CINDY internal dosimetry computer code (Strenge et al. 1993). The computer code will be set up to allow analysis of multiple cases in the same run. This feature is useful for performing multiple runs for the same individual (e.g., for different exposure dates or for different chemical forms of inhaled plutonium), or for performing runs for a set of individuals with similar exposures. As discussed above, the uncertainties in the estimated doses will be based on published uncertainty ranges in the organ dose factors. The computer code will be programmed in Analytica? programming language (Analytica 2003). The Analytica? computer code will interact with Microsoft Access database where the bioassay data can be stored. The main advantages of using this programming platform are (a) good interaction with a well-developed database management software, (b) availability in Analytica? of a powerful Monte-Carlo engine for proper error propagation, and (c) user-friendly interfaces. Sub-Task 1.D Documentation of the computer software The computer code will be self-documented. A short technical documentation, however, will be provided in form of a report. The technical documentation will briefly describe the techniques used to determine intake and estimate doses, and will discuss the choices of the uncertainties in the organ doses per unit intake from the existing, published values. In addition, the documentation will include basic guidance for a user operating the code. DELIVERABLES for TASK 1 Sub-tasks 1.A to 1.D represent milestones in completing Task 1. The main deliverables for Task 1 are the version 1.0 of the computer software for determination of intakes and estimation of doses and it?s technical documentation. The databases developed in sub-Tasks 1.A and 1.B will be provided as part of the final computer code. Short progress reports will be delivered to NIOSH every two months. A representative of SENES Oak Ridge, Inc. will travel to NIOSH to deliver and demonstrate the computer software. SCHEDULE for TASK 1 Task 1 will start at the beginning of the project and will be completed within 6 months. TASK 2 ? Quantification of uncertainty in organ doses Various attempts of quantification of uncertainties in the organ doses from inhalation or ingestion of plutonium have been done in the past (Huston 1995, Farfan et al. 2003; Huston et al. 2003; Goosens et al. 1998). Some published studies are incomplete (e.g., Huston 1995, Farfan et al. 2003 and Huston et al. 2003 considered doses to only the respiratory tract tissues). Other studies are inconclusive. For instance, the experts participating in the European Community expert elicitation do not agree regarding the magnitude of the uncertainty in the doses from plutonium (Goossens et al. 1998). The uncertainty in the red bone marrow doses from inhalation of plutonium is listed as uncertainty range of 10 by some experts (95th/5th percentile ratio), while others state that it can be larger than a factor of 100. All studies on uncertainty in doses from plutonium have been done using the current ICRP or older biokinetic models. The uncertainties in the organ doses based on the more recent post-ICRP biokinetic model have not been estimated. Also, no uncertainties in dose due to wound contamination have been estimated. The purpose of this task is to determine the uncertainties in the organ doses from inhalation, ingestion and wound contamination with plutonium. Uncertainties will be estimated for tissues of the respiratory tract (including lung) and for all other organs of the body in the ICRP list of organs. The uncertainties in the dose per unit intake will be incorporated in the database of dose-per-unit-intake coefficients (see sub-Task 1.B above), so that the computer code developed in Task 1 will report both doses and associated uncertainties, with the necessary correlations between annual doses. Task 2 will have the following sub-tasks: Sub-Task 2.A Uncertainties in the plutonium biokinetic and dosimetric model The purpose of this sub-task is to quantify the uncertainties in each parameter of the biokinetic and dosimetric model, for both the most recent ICRP and the post-ICRP model. Uncertainties in the parameters of the respiratory tract portion of the biokinetic model have been determined and documented by Huston (1995) and other publications following-up on his work (Bolch et al. 2001; Bolch et al. 2003; Farfan et al. 2003; Huston et al. 2003). This task will use the information already available for the respiratory tract, and will focus on determination of uncertainties in the parameters of systemic part of the biokinetic model. The uncertainties in the organ doses will be derived by assigning probability distributions functions as a description of the uncertainty in each parameter of the biokinetic and dosimetric model. The uncertainties in the parameters will be propagated using Monte-Carlo methods for error propagation. Sub-Task 2.B Quantifying the uncertainties in the organ doses per unit intake The purpose of this sub-task is to generate dose-per-unit-intake dose coefficients for all necessary exposure conditions and incorporate them in the database of dose-per-unit-intake coefficients (see sub-Task 1.B above). This will allow the computer code developed in Task 1 to report doses and associated uncertainties, with the necessary correlations between annual doses. DELIVERABLES for TASK 2 Sub-tasks 2.A and 2.B are milestones for Task 2. The main deliverable of Task 2 is version 2.0 of the software for determination of intakes and estimation of doses. This version will contain uncertainty ranges for organ doses resulting from a rigorous treatment of the uncertainty in the biokinetic and dosimetric model for plutonium. The updated technical documentation will include details of the new treatment of uncertainties. Short progress reports will be delivered to NIOSH every two months. A representative of SENES Oak Ridge, Inc. will travel to NIOSH to deliver and demonstrate the software. SCHEDULE for TASK 2 Task 2 will start after Task 1 is completed and it is estimated that it will take 6 months to complete it. Thus, the second version of the software will thus be completed about 1 year from the beginning of the project. 5. REFERENCES Analytica 2003. Analytica? User?s Guide. Analytica? For Windows. Version 2.0. Lumina Decision Systems, Inc., Los Gatos, California. (www.lumina.com) Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). Toxicological Profile For Plutonium, U.S. Public Health Service in collaboration with: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, December 1990. Bolch WE, Farfan EB, Huh CH, Huston TE, Bolch WE. Influences of parameter uncertainties within the ICRP-66 respiratory tract model: Particle deposition. Health Phys. 81:378-394; 2001. Bolch WE, Huston TE, Farfan EB, Vernetson WG, Bolch WE Influences of parameter uncertainties within the ICRP-66 respiratory tract model: Particle clearance. Health Phys. 84:421-435; 2003. Ehrhart SM, Filipy RE. USTUR Annual Report for February 1, 2000 through January 31, 2001. United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries. USTUR-0177-1. Washington State University; 2001. Farfan EB, Huston TE, Bolch WE, Vernetson WG, Bolch WE Influences of parameter uncertainties within the ICRP-66 respiratory tract model: Regional tissue doses for 239PuO2 and 238UO2/238U3O8. Health Phys 84:436-450; 2003. Gilbert ES, Koshurnikova NA, Sokolnikov M, Khokhryakov VF, Miller S, Preston DL, Romanov SA, Shilnikova NS, Suslova KG, Vostrotin VV. Liver cancers in Mayak workers. Radiat Res 154:246?252 (2000). Goosens L.H.J.; Harrison J.D.; Kraan B.C.P.; Cooke R.M.; Harper F.T.; Hora S.C. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis. uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2. Appendices. A report prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and for the Commission of the European Communities. Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM; NUREG/CR-6571; EUR 16773; SAND98-0119; 1998 Ham GJ, Harrison JD. The gastrointestinal tract absorption and urinary excretion of plutonium in male volunteers. Radiat Prot Dosim 87:267-272, 2000. Huston TE. Quantifying uncertainties in lung dosimetry with application to plutonium oxide aerosols. A dissertation presented to the graduate school of the University of Florida in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy. University of Florida. 1995. Huston TE, Farfan EB, Bolch, WE, Bolch WE Influences of parameter uncertainties within the ICRP-66 respiratory tract model: a parameter sensitivity analysis. Health Phys. 85(5):553-566. 2003. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Age-dependent doses to members of the public from intake of radionuclides: Part 2 ingestion dose coefficients. Report No. 67. Pergamon Press, Oxford. 1993. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Human respiratory tract model for radiological protection. Report No. 66. Pergamon Press, Oxford. 1994. Khokhryakov VF, Menshikh ZS, Suslova KG, Kudryavtseva TI, Tokarskaya ZB, Romanov SA. Plutonium excretion model for the healthy man. Rad. Prot. Dosim. 53:235-239, 1995. Khokhryakov VF, Suslova KG, Filipy RE, Allredge JR, Aldova EE, Glover SE, Vostrotin VV. Metabolism and dosimetry of actinide elements in occupationally exposed personnel of Russia and the United States: A summary progress report. Health Phys. 79:63-71, 2000. Koshurnikova NA, Gilbert ES, Shilnikova NA, Sokolnikov M, Preston DL, Kreisheimer M, Ron E, Okatenko P, Romanov SA, Studies on the Mayak nuclear workers: health effects. Radiat Environ Biophys (2002) 41:29?31, 2002. Koshurnikova NA, Bolotnikova MG, Ilyin LA, Keirim-Markus IB, Menshikh ZS, Okatendo PV, Romanov SA, Tsvetkov VI, Koshurnikova NA, Gilbert ES, Sokolnikov M, Khokhryakov VF, Miller S, Preston DL, Romanov SA, Shilnikova NS, Suslova KG, Vostrotin VV. Bone cancers in Mayak workers. Radiat Res 154:237?245, 2000. Kreisheimer M, Koshurnikova NA, Nekolla E, Khokhryakov VF, Romanov SA, Sokolnikov ME, Kellerer AM, Lung cancer mortality among nuclear workers of the Mayak facilities in the former Soviet Union. Radiat Res 154:3?11, 2000. National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC), Committee on Health Effects of Exposure to Radon. Health Effects of Exposure to Radon: BEIR VI. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1999. Newton D, Talbot RJ, Kang C, Warner AJ. Uptake of plutonium by the human liver. Radiat. Prot. Dosim. 80:385-395, 1998. Popplewell DS, Ham GJ, Lands C. Transfer of plutonium across the human gut and its urinary excretion. Radiat Prot. Dosim. 53:241-244, 1994. Ruttenber AJ, Schonbeck M, Brown S, Wells T, McClure D, McCrae J, Popken D, Martyny J. Report of Epidemiologic Analyses Performed for Rocky Flats Production Workers Employed Between 1952 -1989. Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Denver, CO. 2003. http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/rf/rfpworkerstudy/index.html Shilnikova NS, Preston DS, Vassilendo EK, Romanov SA Cancer risk among workers at the Russian Nuclear Complex Mayak. In: Moriarty M, Mothersill C, Seymour C, Edington M, Ward JF, Fry RJM (eds) Proceedings of the 11th International Congress of Radiation Research, vol. 2. Radiat Res. Allen Press, Lawrence, Kan, pp 766?769, 2000. Strenge DL, Kennedy RA, Johnson JR, Sula MJ. CINDY code for internal dosimetry, version 1.3C. Meriden CT, Canberra Industries, 1993. Suslova KG, Filipy RE, Khokhryakov VF, Romanov SA, Kathren RL. Comparison of the dosimetry registry of the Mayak Industrial Association and the United States Transuranium Registries: A preliminary report. Radiat. Prot. Dosim. 67:13-22, 1996. Talbot RJ, Newton D, Warner AJ. Metabolism of injected plutonium in two healthy men. Health Physics. 65:41-46, 1993. Talbot RJ, Newton D, Dmitriev SN. Sex related differences in the human metabolism of plutonium. Radiat. Prot. Dosim. 71:107-121, 1997. U.S. DOE 1996. Plutonium: The First Fifty Years -- United States Plutonium Production, Acquisition and Utilization from 1944 to 1994, U.S. Department of Energy. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, February 1996. Through this announcement, alternate sources are being offered the opportunity to demonstrate their capabilities to provide the services specifically identified above. To be consdered qualfied, sources must submit a capabilities statement which demonstrates in writing that they possess the ability to deliver the kind of activity outlined in the statement of work including the following: The scope supports continuing epidemiologic study by developing retrospective dose assessment methods and computational tools for quantitative estimates of dose from uptake of various plutonium-bearing compounds that are likely in the workplace. Potential bidders will need a computational tool(s) shall consist of computer software that allows the user to derive the intake of plutonium based on bioassay data (e.g., measured urine or fecal excretion rate), and then, by working from the intake forward, reconstruct organ doses using contemporary biokinetic and dosimetric models. The computer software will provide the capability of individual and batch (cohort) analysis, resulting in annual and committed organ doses with uncertainties. The uncertainties in the estimated organ doses shall be quantified by Monte-Carlo error propagation of the uncertainties in each model parameter The proposed work shall provide an efficient means to estimate tissue doses for individual workers and allow processing a large number of workers in a batch mode. Derivation of intake will be based on weighted least-square regression methods. Both derivation of intake and derivation of organ doses shall rely on the most recent biokinetic models for inhalation and ingestion of plutonium (ICRP 1993, 1994). In addition, provisions shall be incorporated for selecting modeling parameters associated with the emerging post-ICRP biokinetic models based on analysis of recent plutonium data from the Harwell, NRPB, Mayak and USTUR studies. Capabilities are to be received in the contracting office no later then fifteen (15) days from the date of this annoucement. Submit written information to: Dwight D. Favors, MS-C4, Reference: 2004-N-01337, DHHS/PHS/CDC, 4676 Columbia Parkway, Cincinnati, OH 45226, or responses may be submitted electronically to Dwight Favors at dyf3@cdc.gov. Yhe intent of this synopsis is to determine whether alternative sources exist. Information received will be used solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement. A determination by the Government not to compete this propsed requirement based upon responses to this notice is solely with the discretion of the Government. All responsible sources may submit a response, which shall be considered by the Agency.
- Place of Performance
- Address: Cincinnati, OH 45226
- Record
- SN00583708-W 20040513/040511211821 (fbodaily.com)
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