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FBO DAILY ISSUE OF AUGUST 04, 2004 FBO #0982
SPECIAL NOTICE

R -- Modeling US Age Specific Mortality through Historical Data and Time Series Methods

Notice Date

8/2/2004
 

Notice Type

Special Notice
 

NAICS

541611 — Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services
 

Contracting Office

Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Procurement and Grants Office (Atlanta), 2920 Brandywine Road, Room 3000, Atlanta, GA, 30341-4146
 

ZIP Code

30341-4146
 

Solicitation Number

2004-Q-01578
 

Response Due

8/17/2004
 

Archive Date

9/1/2004
 

Point of Contact

Dorothy Reed-Penix, Contract Specialist, Phone (770)488-2706, Fax (770)488-2847,
 

E-Mail Address

DReedPenix@cdc.gov
 

Description

This is for informational purposes only. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention intends to issue a sole source purchase order to the University of Maryland, College Park MD 20742. The purpose of the purchase order will be to Model US Age-Specific Mortality through Historical Data and Time Series Methods. The suggsted contractor and Benjamin Kedem, Ph.D will be collaborating on this effort. BACKGROUND INFORMATION: The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Has collected vital statistics on the US population for more than 50 years. Because of high variability for some causes of death production of age-specific mortality in demographic subdomains are not easily computed directly from available data. Parametric modeling of age-specific mortality in demographic subpopoulations will benefit many practical areas including public health and social economics. Lee and Carter?s (LC) model incorporated time series components as factors of random drift when forecasting US mortality from 1990 to 2065. As evaluated by using updated data, the LC method has been appreciated and improved by researchers. This project is proposed to model mortality in demographic groups by 50 US states and the District of Columbia using NCHS mortality data. US mortality data with state information from 1968 to the present are available for this research. Mortality patterns will be studied with all current and historical data based upon the LC fundamental work. extensions and modifications to these methods will be explored and evaluated. The methodology will also be studied for possible improvements using Bayesian approaches. Results from this project will be used in further research and in applications at the NCHS and in public health nationally and internationally. One application in NCHS is to assist in constructing decennial State life tables. OBJECTIVE: (1) Model age-sex specific mortality for each state for selected demographic sub domains (2) extend the work of Lee and Carter; evaluate extensions (3) Investigate Bayesian approaches for improvement (4) Assist in preparing specifications for use in applications at NCHS. It is believed that the items and services procured from this vendor meets the minimum needs of the government and no other source for this equipment is known at this time. A determination by the Government not to compete the proposed acquisition based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. All vendors are required to be registered in the Central Contractor Registration (CCR) prior to award of a Federal contract. The preferred method for completing registration is via the World Wide Web at http://www.ccr.gov/. A handbook and other information are available at the site, including information on how to obtain a DUNS number, which is required to begin the registration process. This procurement will be processed under the authority of FAR 6.302-1. Only one responsible source and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirements. The proposed contract action is for supplies and services for which the Government intends to solicit and negotiate with only one source under authority of FAR 6.302. Interested persons may identify their interest and capability to respond to the requirements. This notice is not a request for competitive proposals. The government will consider all proposals received by 8:30 AM, EST, Tuesday, August 17, The proposal shall be clearly marked with the RFQ Number 2004-Q-01578. A determination by the Government not to compete this proposed contract based on responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the government. Information received will be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement. Inquiries will only be accepted by email to dreedpenix@cdc.gov.
 

Place of Performance

Address: College Park, MD

Zip Code: 20782

Country: US
 

Record

SN00634716-W 20040804/040802211755 (fbodaily.com)
 

Source

FedBizOpps.gov Link to This Notice
(may not be valid after Archive Date)

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