SOURCES SOUGHT
B -- THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POPULATION MODEL FOR THREATENED ELKHORN CORAL
- Notice Date
- 7/17/2007
- Notice Type
- Sources Sought
- NAICS
- 541710
— Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences
- Contracting Office
- Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Central Region Acquisition Division, 601 East 12th Street, Room 1756, Kansas City, MO, 64106, UNITED STATES
- ZIP Code
- 00000
- Solicitation Number
- NFFN5300716029CMM
- Response Due
- 8/1/2007
- Archive Date
- 8/16/2007
- Small Business Set-Aside
- Total Small Business
- Description
- The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) located in Saint Petersburg, FL, intends to establish a fixed price purchase order for the development of a population model for threatened Elkhorn Coral (Acropora Palmata), to be utilized by the SESFC on a sole source basis from Tali Vardi, La Jolla, CA based on the following: 1) Tali Vardi, a PhD candidate at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, has been developing this model for the past two years through funding made available through the Scripps Institute; 2) Vardi has the network of colleagues and advisors with the necessary expertise to develop the required population model and has been partnering with researchers at the SESFC who have collected the necessary data needed to support the on-going model development; 3) Tali Vardi is the only known source that has begun the development of such a model that successfully meets the requirement SESFC currently has; 4) The preliminary model is the intellectual property of Tali Vardi and therefore is not available from another source at this time; 5) For consistency and to prevent the loss of the progress that has already been made it is necessary to continue utilizing the partnership with Vardi and the SESFC to ensure successful completion of the Vardi model. Project Overview Caribbean acroporids have undergone a 97% decline in regional abundance since the 1970s, resulting in a ?Threatened? status under the Endangered Species Act. NMFS needs a population model that will enable them to choose recovery strategies for Acropora Palmata based on quantitative, defensible guidelines. The Contractor will c create a matrix model using data collected by NOAA?s SESFC on change in A. palamata size through time in Key Largo. The model will enable the estimation of key life history parameters such as rate of change in population size and expected time to extinction. Upon assessing the rate of change in population size the Contractor will conduct a sensitivity analysis to assess the relative importance of various life history parameters (e.g. size and density of individuals) in affecting population growth. Second, the Contractor will create comparable models for populations of A. palmate in other locations in the Caribbean that are faring differently than those in Key Largo. (e.g. recruiting in Jamaica, and exhibiting stability in Curacao). Armed with models for three different types of populations and their respective parameters, the Contractor will be able to recommend the most appropriate recovery strategies for each type (e.g. planting young corals in populations that are recruitment-limited, and protecting older corals where recruitment is apparent. Ultimely, the model will be extrapolated to Acropora cervicornis and used to (1) prioritize the management of various risk factors according to their effects on A. palmate and A. cervicornis populations; and (2) elucidate appropriate spatial and temporal scales for restoration, providing NOAA Fisheries and the public with realistic expectations for recovery. In short, such a model will help direct precious conservation dollars to populations that have a chance of persisting into the future. Period of Performance: October 1, 2007 through March 31, 2009. Place of Performance: Contractor?s facility Objectives / Activity / Deliverables / Target Dates: 1. Create initial model based on data from SESFC. Activity: Dr. Margaret Miller and colleagues with NOAA?s SEFSC have been monitoring remnant A. palmate colonies in five reefs off of Key Largo, FL, every three months for over two years. From this data an index of live tissue (analogous to biomass or abundance of fish) is calculated by estimating the living surface area of the coral colony. Data is being gathered using the same or similar methods in St. John, Curacao, and Navassa. Among these regions A palmate populations vary in recruitment rate, dominant method of reproduction (sexual versus asexual), and population densities. Comparison of population trends among these regions will be critical, as this data provides natural experiments, or at least explorations of parameter space, enhancing the predictive and descriptive power of modeling analyses. Corals are structured by size, and the Contractor will use measurements from SEFSC to create a size-based matrix population model for Florida initially and for other regions as the data becomes available. Results of this model will include estimates of the rate of change in population size and time to extinction for each population. 2. Calibrate SEFSC data methodology to insure its appropriateness for population modeling. Activity: In order to ensure that the SEFSC method of data collection is appropriate for modeling, during Fall 2007, the Contractor will collect data on growth and shrinkage on the Key Largo colonies using digital photography and measurement of branch lengths. Incorporating fine-scale three-dimensional modeling of branching coral morphology, the Contractor will develop an algorithm whereby the photos and branch length measurement will be translated into a more accurate assessment of live tissue. Finally the Contractor will determine if there are discrepancies in the model output, between the more accurate assessment and the SEFSC assessment, and adjust the model accordingly. 3. Collect, process, and analyze field data. Activity: In order to gain a clearer picture of the status of A. palmate throughout the Caribbean, the Contractor will begin monitoring populations in at least one novel location, likely Jamaica, where sexual recruits have been documented, in Fall 2007. 4. Create draft population model for Acropora palmate for at least one other location. Activity: Repeat field work from Objective 3 in Summer 2008. Integrate results from all field studies including those from SEFSC into a revised model. Conduct an elasticity analysis on the various life stages utilized in the revised model. Elasticity analysis is appropriate for organisms, like acroporids and many marine invertebrates, with long generation times and a low proportion of surviving young. This analysis will help determine which life stages are most critical to protect for species recovery. To maximize the utility of the population dynamic model and increase its reflection of reality, the Contractor will also run model simulations to evaluate the relative effect of various risk factors, such as disease, hurricanes, stochastic factors, and Allee effects. Simulating under these scenarios using data from the literature, the Contractor will examine the model for trajectories of change in population decline. Stochastic dynamics are critical for populations that exists so far below (at 2% of) their carrying capacity. Demographic stochasticity in particular is important to consider when modeling small population size. A simulation model incorporating stochasticities and Allee effects will mark a significant advancement in population modeling for corals. The Contractor will extrapolate the results to A. cervicornis to the extent feasible. Results from the revised model and the above-described analyses will comprise the final report. The proposed contract action is for supplies or services for which the Government intends to solicit and negotiate with only one source. Interested parties may identify their interest and capability to respond to the requirement or submit proposals. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive responses. However, all responses received within fifteen days after date of publication of this synopsis will be considered by the Government. Responses can be faxed to Carey Marlow at (816) 274-6923 or submitted via email to carey.m.marlow@noaa.gov . Interested parties should include, in writing the company name, address, point of contact, telephone number, and business size; a statement regarding their capabilities and qualifications; and any additional supporting literature. Submissions received in response to this notice shall be evaluated based on the following criteria: 1) Demonstration of knowledge in general acroporid biology, ecology, natural history, and genetics; 2) Demonstration of ability to conduct field work in various Caribbean locations in support of developing a population model (i.e., SCUBA diving to collect demographic data); 3) Demonstration of progress in developing a population model for acroporid corals; 4) Demonstration of necessary partnerships to acquire data in support of model; 5) Demonstration of ability to present findings via various methods (i.e., reports, presentations, etc.); The applicable NAICS code is 541710. DOC, CRAD requires that all contractors doing business with this office be registered with the Central Contractor Registry (CCR). No award can be made to a company not registered in CCR. For additional information and to register in CCR, please access the following web site: http://www.ccr.gov. In order to register, all offerors must have a Dun & Bradstreet Number. A Dun & Bradstreet number may be acquired free of charge by contacting Dun & Bradstreet on-line at https://www.dnb.com/product/eupdate/requestOptions.html or by phone at (800) 333-0505. (END OF NOTICE)
- Place of Performance
- Address: NMFS, 363 13TH AVENUE SOUTH, ST. PETERSBURG, FL 33701
- Zip Code: 33701
- Country: UNITED STATES
- Zip Code: 33701
- Record
- SN01343995-W 20070719/070717220348 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
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