SOURCES SOUGHT
R -- Preservations of New Starts Forecasts
- Notice Date
- 2/4/2009
- Notice Type
- Sources Sought
- NAICS
- 541611
— Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services
- Contracting Office
- Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration (FTA), Federal Transit Administration HQ, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE, Washington, District of Columbia, 20590
- ZIP Code
- 20590
- Solicitation Number
- DTFT60-09-R-00008
- Point of Contact
- Sonja L. Rousey,, Phone: 2023662508
- E-Mail Address
-
Sonja.Rousey@dot.gov
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- The Safe, Accountable, Flexible, and Efficient Transportation Equity Act—A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) stipulates that the Secretary of Transportation must make a number of determinations before a grant or loan can be made for the construction of any project seeking Section 5309 New Starts funds. These determinations require that the planning process generate credible information on project costs, ridership, financing, and environmental impacts. 49 U.S.C. Chapter 53 Section 5309 contains criteria for determining whether New Start projects are eligible for funding. The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Office of Planning and Environment (TPE) assesses New Starts projects to verify that requirements for eligibility for New Starts funding have been met. Reviews of past New Starts projects have documented that ridership forecasts have frequently varied significantly from ridership experienced after those projects have been opened for service. As part of the 1993 Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) that requires Federal agencies to improve the effectiveness of their programs and their accountability to the public, FTA included in the Final Rule on Major Capital Investment Projects (New Starts, 49 CFR Part 611) (published on December 7, 2000, effective April 7, 2001) several provisions that integrated Before and After Studies into the New Starts project development process. Section 611.7(c)(4) of the Final Rule requires that the sponsor of a New Starts project develop, early in final design, a plan to identify the impacts of the project and to examine the accuracy of forecasts for the project. The FTA issued guidance on Preservation of Information for Before and After Studies on May 16, 2006, available at: http://www.fta.dot.gov/planning/newstarts/planning_environment_5203.html#2_Preservation_of_Information_for_Before_and_After_Study_ The objective of this procurement is to provide oversight support services to the Office of Planning and Environment (TPE) of the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). FTA anticipates that the required services will focus on three functional areas: 1. Review of travel forecasts 2. Preservation of travel forecasts 3. Assistance with Before and After Studies TASK 0001 - Review of Travel Forecasts The objective of this task is for the contractor to assist TPE with verification that reasonable forecasts for use in evaluating New Small Starts projects have been prepared. Assignments under this task may include but are not limited to: a) The contractor shall review and comment on data collection proposals related to calibration and validation of travel demand forecasting models to be used in New Starts evaluations. b) The contractor shall analyze data collected for calibration and validation of travel demand forecasting models. c) The contractor shall review travel model calibrations to determine if the model has matched the observed base year data within reasonable tolerances and has paid appropriate attention to the markets, travel modes, and travel behaviors important to the upcoming applications of the model set. The contractor shall identify any model refinements that may be needed. d) Through sensitivity tests, quality control tests, and comparative checks, the contractor shall assess the behavioral implications of the calibrated model to determine if the structure and parameters are telling a plausible story about demand-side behavior and supply-side phenomena. The contractor shall identify any model refinements that may be needed. e) The contractor shall review and comment on travel model forecasts, including a detailed “forensic analysis” to track down and document reasons for any unusual outputs. The contractor shall identify any model refinements that may be needed. Preservation of Travel Forecasts TASK 002 - Preservation of Travel Forecasts The objective of this task is for the contractor to assist TPE with verification that the ridership forecasts have been properly preserved for future application in the “Before and After Studies”. Assignments under this task may include but are not limited to: a) The contractor shall work with project sponsors to ensure their DVD submissions to FTA are sufficient to fully replicate forecasts outside the environment where they were originally applied. b) The contractor shall archive computer files, software, hardware, and documentation so that new forecasts with different inputs can be independently prepared (if needed) at a later date. TASK 003 - Assistance with "Before and After Studies" The objective of this task is for the contractor to assist TPE with their oversight of the “Before and After Studies”. Assignments under this task may include but are not limited to: a) The contractor shall review “Before and After Studies” data collection proposals. b) The contractor shall analyze the collected before and after data. c) The contractor shall review and comment on “Before and After Study” draft reports submitted by project sponsors. d) The contractor shall prepare and analyze new travel model forecasts that are designed to document the reasons the original travel model’s predictions are different from observed conditions. e) The contractor shall document the “lessons learned” from “Before and After Studies”, in a manner that helps inform future model implementation efforts about what has worked right in the past and what has caused problems.
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- Record
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