SOURCES SOUGHT
R -- EVALUATE PERFORMANCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY FORECAST PRODUCT - Analysis to be Duplicated
- Notice Date
- 6/16/2011
- Notice Type
- Sources Sought
- NAICS
- 541990
— All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
- Contracting Office
- Department of the Air Force, Air Force Space Command, 45CONS (Bldg 423), 1201 Edward H White II St MS 7200, Patrick AFB, Florida, 32925-3238
- ZIP Code
- 32925-3238
- Solicitation Number
- F3K1FB1098AG01
- Archive Date
- 7/15/2011
- Point of Contact
- Leisa A. Zemba, Phone: 3218540974
- E-Mail Address
-
leisa.zemba@patrick.af.mil
(leisa.zemba@patrick.af.mil)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- Evaluate NHC Product - 2D Interpretation Model Evaluate NHC Product - Background Evaluate NHC Product - Analysis to be Duplicated The Patrick Air Force Base 45th Contracting Squadron is seeking sources with the capability to fill the requirement for the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to evaluate the performance of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Wind Speed Probability Forecast product. The 45 WS makes extensive use of this NHC product in advising operational customers of hurricane impacts including whether to let space launch vehicles and payloads ride-out the hurricane at the launch pad or roll-back to shelter. The former avoids costly delays in space launch schedule, but increases risk to the space launch vehicle and payload, while the latter is safer and causes costly delays in space launch schedule. The 45 WS also uses the NHC product to help customers schedule preparations to mitigate the risks from tropical cyclones at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station/Kennedy Space Center/Patrick Air Force Base (CCAFS/KSC/PAFB). Preparations cost funds and work hours diverted from normal duties, but not being prepared risks personnel safety and resource protection. Finally, 45 WS uses the NHC product to help customers make evacuation decisions, including timing for setting the various Hurricane Conditions for CCAFS/KSC/PAFB. The performance of the old NHC wind speed product was previously evaluated, (see attachments entitled "...Analysis to Be Duplicated" and "...Background") but NHC introduced a new improved model for operational use in 2010 hurricane season. The significant improvements in the new model mean that the old performance evaluation is no longer representative of the current operational product. To fulfill this requirement, the successful contractor shall have the capability to document the performance of the new NHC wind speed probability forecasts that began in the 2010 hurricane season for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, threatening the United States and Antigua. Since this analysis will likely be extended in future years as more hurricane seasons occur and larger sample sizes become for improved performance evaluation, the successful contractor shall also design the project for easy addition of more tropical cyclones. The following are those goals to be accomplished in the achievement of this requirement: 1) First Goal : Verify the performance of the cumulative wind probability forecasts. This verification will include the following six factors: 1) verify the cumulative forecasts for all land tropical cyclones threatening the Gulf Coast and the East Coast of the U.S., 2) verify these forecasts for at least 2005-2011, 3) include handling of the ‘X' forecasts (<0.5% but >0%), 4) verify the forecasts for three time intervals: up to closest approach, after closest approach, and for the entire forecast period, 5) determine if the performance for land threatening hurricanes for east central Florida centered on CCAFS/KSC/PAFB, is significantly different from the entire Gulf and East U.S. coastline, and 6) use the new National Hurricane Center forecast model implemented operationally in the 2010 hurricane season applied retroactively to previous seasons if available. Land threatening hurricanes are those for which the NHC wind probability forecasts have values of 1% or greater for any of the forecast points location on the Gulf or East U.S. coast. Design the project for easy addition of more tropical cyclones, such as from future hurricane seasons. 2) Second Goal : Document the performance of the new NHC interval wind probability forecasts with the same six factors as listed for the cumulative forecast documentation listed above. 3) Third Goal : Determine and document if the performance of the new NHC cumulative and interval forecasts for hurricanes threatening Antigua is significantly different from the entire Gulf and East U.S. coastline. 4) Fourth Goal : Develop, tune, and verify a two-dimensional interpretation tool for the new interval and cumulative NHC wind speed probability forecasts. The two-dimensional tool converts the probability forecast into five plain-language categories (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high) based on the forecast probability at a point of interest and that probability relative to the rest of the forecast. The Verification must be done on data independent from the development and tuning. More detail can be found under the attached document entitled: '2-D Interpretation Model'. It is the Government's intention to set aside this requirement under a small business set-aside program. The North American Industry Classification Systems (NAICS) Code proposed for the requirement is 541990. The size standard for NAICS 541990 is $7M. The Government is interested in all qualified and experienced small businesses, including 8(a), Historically Underutilized Business Zone, or Service Disabled Veteran Owned Small Businesses that, in the Government's opinion, are capable of performing this requirement. In the event that no qualified and experienced small business responds, it will be the Government's intention to consider all other sources. The Government requests that interested parties submit a brief description of their company's business size (i.e. annual revenues and employee size), business status (i.e., 8(a), Historically Underutilized Business Zone, or Service Disabled Veteran Owned Small Businesses, small business), and a description of similar services offered to the Government and to commercial customers. The Government will use this information in determining its small business set-aside decision. Sources should submit a brief capabilities statement in response to this notice. The response should be no more than 3 typed pages and must address the following areas: 1) provide a description of the firm's background in meteorology, 2) demonstrate an understanding of the National Hurricane Center's products, 3) demonstrate an understanding of statistical analysis that shows a capability to conduct an evaluation modeled after the previous evaluation of the NHC products (see attachment entitled, "...Analysis To Be Duplicated' and ‘...Background"), especially verification of probability forecasting and bootstrapping/resampling, and 4) a description of recent and relevant company experience related to the requirements outlined in this announcement, to include publications and reports. Submit capabilities statement to: Attn: Leisa Zemba, Bldg 1704, Hangar Rd, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, FL 32920-2200 or email to leisa.zemba@patrick.af.mil. Responses are due no later than 30 June 2010. Direct all questions to the attention of Leisa Zemba at 321 854-0974. This sources sought is NOT a Request For Proposal (RFP) and does NOT commit the Government to pay for information requested, issuance of a solicitation, or award of a contract. This effort is considered Commercial in nature and any resultant RFP/Contract will be issued/awarded IAW FAR Part 12, Acquisition of Commercial Items.
- Web Link
-
FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/spg/USAF/AFSC/45CONSb423/F3K1FB1098AG01/listing.html)
- Place of Performance
- Address: Contractor's site, United States
- Record
- SN02475041-W 20110618/110616235003-1974727d17acae6c998ca305501e666d (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
FedBizOpps Link to This Notice
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