MODIFICATION
R -- Commercial Capital Assessment Projections
- Notice Date
- 1/5/2015
- Notice Type
- Modification/Amendment
- NAICS
- 541611
— Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services
- Contracting Office
- Department of Housing and Urban Development, OCPO, Office of Support Operations, Office of Support Operations, NO, 451 7th Street S.W., Washington, District of Columbia, 20410, United States
- ZIP Code
- 20410
- Solicitation Number
- DU100R-2015-032
- Archive Date
- 2/10/2015
- Point of Contact
- Rachel.N.Wilson, Phone: 202-402-4284
- E-Mail Address
-
rachel.n.wilson@hud.gov
(rachel.n.wilson@hud.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- COMMERCIAL CAPITAL ASSESSMENT PROJECTIONS (CCAP) This is a SOURCES SOUGHT NOTICE to determine the availability and capability of qualified small businesses (including certified 8(a), Small Disadvantaged, HUBZone firms; veteran and service-disabled veteran-owned small businesses, and women-owned small businesses) to provide analytical and related services to provide an internal view of the General and Special Risk Insurance Fund (GI/SRI) and a small portion of the Mutual Mortgage Fund (MMI) (to be included in references to the GI/SRI fund) and assist the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to manage the risk of its portfolio of insured mortgage loans. The internal view and risk management is expected to be provided and accomplished by the contractor through a series of risk management and financial reports to be known as Commercial Capital Assessment Projections (CCAP). BACKGROUND: Transactions associated with the FHA's guarantee programs for commercial (commercial includes multifamily apartment complexes, hospitals, nursing homes, assisted living residences, Board and Care facilities) mortgages are recorded in an account of the federal government known as the GI/SRI. FHA has insured over 45,000 million mortgages through the GI/SRI since 1970 of which over 13,000 are currently active. Aggregate insurance in force was $90 billion as of 9/30/14. Cash flows on these insurance policies result from both FHA's insurance operations and from transactions mandated by federal credit reform. Aggregate GI/SRI cash flows and performance measures are reported monthly. The CCAP will have a monthly operating cycle. New input data from FHA and other appropriate sources will be updated each month or as needed for special projects principally at the direction of the Office of Management and Budget. (Information drawn from FHA is the transfer of data the contractor might need from FHA. This pertains specifically to the FHA data subject to the GI/SRI Funds for which CCAP is requesting portfolio, valuation and risk modeling. The data and frequency FHA will execute the transfers to the contractor will depend of what kind of data the contractor will need from FHA. It is anticipated these data will be transferred on a regular basis preferably monthly.) Differences between previously forecast and subsequent actual values will be evaluated for out-of -tolerance outcomes and adjustments to models will be made where appropriate. New reports and forecasts will be generated after the current accuracy and reliability of CCAP components has been established. The model shall provide a sound and effective risk management to RMCAP in accordance with principles and standards such as those established by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (AB-2013-07-Model-Risk-Management-Guidance) and The Federal Reserve Board and The Comptroller of the Currency (Supervisory Guidance on Model Risk Management). This is to also to develop, document, operate and manage the RMCAP in accordance with all applicable OMB Circulars (A-11, A-123 and A-129 (OMB Circulars)), and all applicable Federal Accounting and Audit Standards (FASAB Handbook). Requirements Description Performance Objectives: Task Objectives: 1. Analyze the content of appropriate FHA information systems to identify the data elements needed to best achieve each of CCAP's objectives and work with FHA personnel and contractors to develop, implement and operate processes to transfer that information to CCAP. 2. Provide risk measurement and monitoring information. Intended use: accurately and appropriately inform FHA decision-makers of monthly deviations between contractual, budgeted and actual GI/SRI loan performance and the risks causing those deviations (prepayments, delinquencies, claims, losses, recoveries, etc.) by risk category, cohort, portfolio and other appropriate aggregates by: (a) calculating monthly loan level contractual and actual loan performance measures for the FHA commercial portfolios; (b) allocating the differences by type of risk expressed as dollars, as a percent of contractual or budgeted cash flows, and as conditional and cumulative performance measures rates (performance measures include default, claim, and prepayment rates). 3. Provide information placing risk in historical perspective. Intended use: accurately and appropriately inform FHA decision-makers of the position in historical context of each monthly aggregate deviation between contractual, budgeted and actual GI/SRI cash flows by type of risk by calculating the percentile position (or other appropriate measure) of each monthly deviation to its historical distribution. 4. Provide property disposition information. Intended use: accurately and reliably inform FHA decision-makers of historical and probable future note and property-level net proceeds by probability (1%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 95% and 99%) and method of disposition. 5. Provide probable future cash flows from outstanding insurance-in-force. Intended use: for outstanding endorsements on a monthly basis: reliably and appropriately inform FHA decision-makers of future monthly undiscounted cash flows by probability (1%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 95% and 99%) for each cohort and other appropriate aggregate by line item on the cash activity report taking into analytic account probable future economic environments and the probable loan-level deviations from contractual cash flows expected to result from those environments. 6. Estimate the performance of the loan risk categories, cohorts and portfolios used to generate the guaranty liability. Intended use: as a component of FHA's financial statements as of each October 31st. FHA's loan guaranty liability is part of its annual financial statements which are targeted for completion at or soon after mid-November. 7. Provide probable future risk category, cohort, portfolio insurance-in-force cash flows (beginning with the cash flows provided by the Cash Flow Team) and performance measures. Intended use: on a monthly basis for the next seven risk categories, cohorts, portfolios: reliably and appropriately inform FHA decision-makers of predicted insurance-in-force and monthly undiscounted cash flows and performance measures by probability (1%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 95% and 99%) by taking into analytic account probable future economic environments and the probable loan-level deviations from contractual cash flows expected to result from those environments. 8. Provide capital ratio monitoring. Intended use: on a monthly basis, accurately and appropriately inform FHA decision-makers of (a) the level and trend of compliance with the GI/SRI's target capital ratio and (b) the probable future compliance with the GI/SRI's target capital ratio by: calculating capital ratios for the commercial risk categories, cohorts, portfolios, individually and collectively, and for the GI/SRI fund by dividing the valuations provided by the cash flow team the Cash Flow Team by the corresponding values of insurance-in-force. 9. Provide menu-driven policy analyses. Intended use: (a) on a monthly basis, accurately and appropriately inform FHA decision-makers of the levels and trends of selected performance indicators (credit subsidy rate, delinquency rate, claim rate, loss rate, firm commitment volume, endorsement volume etc.) over the appropriate ranges of historical underwriting criteria, servicers, servicing and property disposition practices and cross-tabulations thereof by risk category, cohort, portfolio, program and other appropriate aggregates; and, (b) accurately and appropriately inform FHA decision-makers of the impacts of changes in selected historical loan performance indicators (credit subsidy rate, delinquency rate, claim rate, loss rate, firm commitment volume, endorsement volume etc.) that would have resulted from changes in the historical ranges of selected underwriting criteria, servicers, servicing and property disposition practices and cross-tabulations thereof by risk category, cohort, portfolio and other appropriate aggregates. 10. Provide policy analyses requiring new or extended methods, models and/or estimation. Intended use: (a) as needed, provide expert analytic services to adapt the CCAP software to accurately and appropriately inform FHA decision-makers of the probable impacts (1%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 95% and 99%) of adopting new underwriting criteria, Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) changes, servicing, eligibility requirements, loan size criteria, new program specifications or other proposed program changes and property disposition practices on selected performance indicators (credit subsidy rate, delinquency rate, claim rate, refinance rate, loss rate, firm commitment volume, endorsement volume etc.) including cross-tabulations of new and existing criteria and practices by risk category, cohort, portfolio and other appropriate aggregates; (b) compare the projected performance to the pre-change historical performance; (c) where appropriate, add the analyses to the array of menu-driven policy analyses such that they can be rerun and downloaded after updating inputs but without additional contract labor effort. 11. Provide information for annual report. Intended use: (a) annually, using results generated by achieving Objective 7 as of October 31st, summarize the level and trend of GI/SRI valuations and the GI/SRI capital ratio together with probable future valuations and capital ratios for the next seven fiscal years in one or more formats appropriate to FHA's Report to Congress; and, (b) provide expert analytic services to summarize and explain the data and trends, the general risks to the forecast and the specific risks to the GI/SRI valuations and capital ratios. FHA generally completes its Report to Congress between mid-November and mid-December of each year. 12. Provide budget performance estimates and re-estimates. Intended use: enhance FHA's ability to effectively and efficiently achieve GI/SRI policy goals at minimal risk to taxpayers and to comply with GI/SRI capital ratio requirements by: (a) adapting information and models produced to achieve Objectives 1, 2, 3, 5 and 7 to accurately and reliably estimate probable credit subsidy rates and probable firm commitment and endorsement volumes for budget risk category, cohort, portfolios and corresponding re-estimates for outstanding risk category, cohort, portfolios and inform FHA decision-makers of their probable impacts on GI/SRI capital resources and the need for mandatory appropriations; (b) estimate the probable performance measures rates which correspond to probable credit subsidy rates; (c) estimate the probable impacts of the prescribed economic assumptions on probable GI/SRI performance measures and other key variables and, as needed, provide analytic support for Office of Management and Budget (OMB) approval of deviations from prescribed budget practices; and, (d) provide all budgetary materials in the formats prescribed by the OMB. 13. Provide report storage and retrieval. Intended use: each report and similar output and its supporting data will be organized by the contractor for electronic storage with efficient, user friendly query and retrieval capabilities. 14. Provide reports and inquiry capability currently available in the OPIIS (Online Property Integrated Information Suite) model and tool. Intended Use: To provide HUD/Housing available information reports on commercial property risk assessment for HUD Headquarters and the HUD Field Offices. Currently OPIIS does not contain reports for the 232 and 242 programs. The Base Year will include adding reports for the 232 and 242 programs reports and modifying reports. Currently the OPPIS model contains approximately 50 reports and online views consisting of commercial property FHA-insured loans consisting of insured loan portfolio data such as insurance-n-force, location, units, number of buildings, financial statements, vacancy rates, risk assessment of default, etc. 15. CCAP must provide the similar services offered in OPIIS: a. Provide access to approximately 2,000 HUD/Housing/FHA users nationwide including US Territories; b. Help Desk with phone number and email for questions from field and HUD Headquarters; c. In addition to the existing reports in OPIIS being replicated in the Base Year, up to 12 new reports will be developed in CCAP; d. Business and model support on HUD at work website including updated DED updates, training, etc.; e. Provide full day to day operation and maintenance; f. New tool development or enhancement similar to develop of Property Review Template tool on an as-needed basis. The model changes are more service-provider driven than HUD driven and therefore the service provider must update changes on mutually agreed upon timeframes; g. Model and Tool documentation; h. Model and Tool user support hours will be provided each year and in what format, i. Fully document, test, and implement any new data additions and changes to models, tools and database(s). Contractor will be responsible for new script development to support model, tool and database changes and additions; j. Ad-hoc data requests - up to 12 per month - be handled for data requests from Sr. Management, program areas, Capitol Hill, etc.; Technical objectives: 1. Simplicity: to help manage operational risk, each CCAP task objective must be achieved by the simplest methods available for the required accuracy and reliability. The processes by which the CCAP produces information to inform FHA decision-makers must be comprehensible by mortgage insurance practitioners. 2. Efficiency: to ensure maximum timeliness of the information produced by CCAP and to help ensure that project and budget development deadlines are met, the total elapsed time between the availability of required inputs to CCAP and the availability of decision-ready reports must be minimized without degrading the reliability, precision or other qualitative aspects of the information. 3. Model risk management: each CCAP task objective must be achieved within a provided framework effectively designed to manage model risk to within tolerable levels. 4. Transparency: each component of the CCAP must be adequately documented so as to: (1) prevent key person or contractor dependency; (2) enable proper operation; (3) facilitate independent review with minimal assistance; and, (4) reduce risk when report or model is changed. 5. Credibility: all information produced by each CCAP component must be authoritatively credible as evidenced by professional acceptance as best practices of the methods used to produce the information and the recognized expertise of the subject matter expert in the fields of financial analysis and modeling, financial risk management, mortgage analytics and mortgage insurance and as required by FHA, OMB or other governmental standards. 6. Inputs: all risk measurement and model assumptions and data must be appropriate, accurate and complete. 7. Processes: all processes must be conceptually valid, logically consistent and conform to then current best practices; all code must be verified to the corresponding theory and mathematics. 8. Outputs: all information generated by the CCAP must include a brief, thorough and comprehensible assessment of its accuracy and reliability. Such assessments will include monthly comparisons of predicted and actual outcomes to ensure that differences remain within tolerances. 9. Loan guaranty liability: all inputs, processes and estimates of loan guaranty liability must conform to all accounting and audit standards and other authoritative pronouncements applicable to FHA and conform to concepts and guidance provided by the OMB. Program Objectives: 1. Ownership: FHA must own and be in a format acceptable to HUD, effective ownership and possession, such as through a custodian, of all versions of the CCAP processes, models, reports, data and related documentation at the end of each business day and the end of the contract term. Required to host the models, tools and data in a secure location acceptable to FHA. 2. Compliance: each CCAP component must at all times be fully compliant with all applicable laws, regulations, circulars, accounting and audit standards and related guidance and other authoritative pronouncements. must provide documentary evidence of authoritative knowledge and successful experience at designing, developing, testing, documenting, implementing, operating and maintaining financial risk measurement, econometric, statistical forecasting and management models to applicable federal standards. 3. Independent validation: all CCAP risk management and financial models must be independently validated to determine whether results accurately meet the requirements of their intended use and are reasonable for use as determined by FHA. Each validation will test whether model results can be replicated reliably by an independently developed parallel model constructed from model documentation only. 4. Computing and related capacity: CCAP must be supported by enough computer hardware, software, personnel related resources to facilitate achievement of its efficiency objective. This includes updating documentation and reporting requirements in a timely manner. The NAICS Code is 541611/Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services. The small business size standard is 15M. Interested small business offerors are encouraged to respond to this notice. However, be advised that generic capability statements are not sufficient for effective review of the respondents' capacity and capability to perform the specific work as required. Response must directly demonstrate the company's capability, experience, and/or ability to marshal resources to effectively and efficiently perform each of the tasks described above in sufficient level of detail to allow definitive review of the capability statement and evidence that the contractor can satisfy the minimum requirements listed above in compliance with FAR 52.219-14 ("Limitations of Subcontracting"). Failure to definitively address each of these requirements will result in a finding that respondent lacks capability to perform the work. Responses to this notice shall be limited to ten pages, and must include: 1. Company name, mailing address, e-mail address, telephone and FAX numbers, website address (if available), and the name, telephone number, and e-mail address of a point of contact having the authority and knowledge to clarify responses with Government representatives. 2. Name, title, telephone number, and e-mail addresses of individuals who can verify the demonstrated capabilities identified in the responses. 3. Business size for NAICS 541611 (size standard 15M or number of employees) and status, if qualified as an 8(a) firm (must be certified by SBA), Small Disadvantaged Business (must be certified by SBA), Woman-Owned Small Business, HUBZone firm (must be certified by SBA), and/or Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business (must be listed in the VetBiz Vendor Information Pages). 4. DUNS number, CAGE Code, Tax Identification Number, and company structure (Corporation, LLC, partnership, joint venture, etc.). Companies also must be registered in the System for Award Management (SAM, at www.sam.gov) to be considered as potential sources. 5. Identification of the firm's GSA Schedule contract(s) by Schedule number and contract number and SINs that are applicable to this potential requirement are also requested. 6. If the company has a Government approved accounting system, please identify the agency that approved the system. Please submit copies of any documentation such as letters or certificates to indicate the firm's status (see item #3, above) Teaming arrangements are acceptable, and the information required above on the company responding to this announcement, should also be provided for each entity expected to be teammates of the respondent for performance of this work. To the maximum extent possible, please submit non-proprietary information. Any proprietary information submitted should be identified as such and will be properly protected from disclosure. THIS NOTICE IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSE ONLY, and does not constitute an Invitation for Bids, a Request for Proposals, a Solicitation, and a Request for Quotes, or an indication the Government will contract for the items contained in this announcement. This request is not to be construed as a commitment on the part of the Government to award a contract, nor does the Government intend to pay for any information submitted as a result of this request. The Government will not reimburse respondents for any cost associated with submission of the information being requested or reimburse expenses incurred to interested parties for responses to this announcement. Responses to this announcement will not be returned, nor any ensuing discussions or debriefings of any responses. However, information obtained as a result of this announcement may be reflected in the subsequent solicitation, and HUD may contact one or more respondents for clarifications and to enhance the Government's understanding. This announcement is Government market research, and may result in revisions in both its requirements and its acquisition strategy based on industry responses. RESPONDENTS MUST SUBMIT CAPABILITY STATEMENT VIA E-MAIL to Rachel N. Wilson at Rachel.N.Wilson@hud.gov no later than January 26, 2015, 3:00 PM Eastern Time for consideration. The closing date has been changed to reflect January 26, 2015. RESPONSES TO THIS ANNOUNCEMENT WILL NOT BE RETURNED, NOR ANY ENSUING DISCUSSIONS OR DEBRIEFINGS OF ANY RESPONSES. PLEASE DO NOT CALL.
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FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/spg/HUD/NO/NO/DU100R-2015-032/listing.html)
- Place of Performance
- Address: Contractor's facility, United States
- Record
- SN03608343-W 20150107/150105234126-959505454a8c4605ee090ed7c5c3f0ed (fbodaily.com)
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