Federal Aviation Administration, 800 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C., 20591, ASU-360

A -- REQUEST FOR COMMENTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROTOTYPE(S) FOR A GLOBAL ANALYSIS AND INFORMATION NETWORK (GAIN) DOCKET NO. 28567 PART 1 OF 3 DUE 061496 POC Mr. Chuck Fluet, Manager, Safety Analysis Division, Office of Aviation Safety, ASY-200, Federal Aviation Administration, 400 7th Street, SW., Washington, DC 20590, Telephone No. (202) 267-GAIN (202-267-4246) David Hinson, Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), stresses that Zero Accidents is the only acceptable safety goal for the aviation industry and the FAA. This paper offers some ideas for the elements needed to establish an early warning capability for existing and emerging safety concerns that would move the aviation industry towards Zero Accidents, and challenges the aviation industry to participate in developing that capability. Because of an emerging combination of improved cooperation between airline management, labor, and various governments, advancements in information technologies, and the political environment in several countries, the international aviation industry has an precedented opportunity, by sharing and analyzing aviation safety information, to reach Zero Accidents. This paper (a) solicits comments on the Global Analysis and Information Network (GAIN) concept and implementation strategy for collecting and analyzing aviation safety data, and (b) invites participation in the development of proof-of-concept prototypes. All interested parties, whether or not in the aviation community, are invited to comment on the ideas presented, offer alternative solutions, indicate interest in helping to develop a GAIN prototype or the overall system itself, and comment about how government aviation safety agencies can best help the industry reach Zero Accidents. DATES: Comments in response to this call for action must be received by June 14, 1996. ADDRESSES: It is requested that all comments be submitted via the Internet by sending an e-mail message with your comments (plain text preferred, no graphics please) to: concept_paper@asyweb01.nasdac.faa.gov Please include your name and organization. Comments must also be mailed in hard-copy (two copies) via regular mail to: Federal Aviation Administration, 800 Independence Ave., SW., Office of Chief Counsel, Attention: Rules Docket (AGC-200), Docket No. 28567, Washington, DC 20591. All comments must be marked: ''Docket No. 28567.'' Commenters wishing the FAA to acknowledge receipt of their comments must include a pre-addressed, stamped postcard on which the following statement is made: ''Comments to Docket No. 28567.'' The postcard will be date stamped and mailed to the commenter. Comments submitted about this Notice may be examined at the FAA at the above address in room 915G on weekdays, except on Federal holidays, between 8:30 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. In addition, commenters will be able to review all other comments by Internet. Your submission should not contain any proprietary or other information that you do not want to be made available to the public. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. Chuck Fluet, Manager, Safety Analysis Division, Office of Aviation Safety, ASY-200, Federal Aviation Administration, 400 7th Street, SW., Washington, DC 20590, telephone 202-267-GAIN (202-267-4246). SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION: The aviation industry has made remarkable progress in reducing aviation accident rates. With today's volume of flights, the industry would have suffered more than 10,000 fatalities last year worldwide if the accident rate had not improved so dramatically since 1960. Because of this major decline in the accident rate, the industry now suffers an average of less than 800 fatalities worldwide per year. However, the rate has remained stubbornly consistent for about the last 10 years; and at today's accident rate, forecast growth in air transportation demand will lead to more than 4,500 fatalities worldwide per year by 2025 -- clearly an unacceptable result. Sound methods for certifying the safety of new aviation products and procedures, as well as surveillance activities that help to ensure safe operation and maintenance of these products and procedures, have contributed significantly to the current safety levels of the aviation industry. Within the framework of these regulatory methods, technological advances in engine performance and reliability, airframes and materials, air traffic control, cockpit automation, and simulator training have contributed to the safety of the aviation system. Compliance inspections, accident and incident investigations, special studies, and program evaluations are the fundamental methods of continuing surveillance in the operating environment, and safety has improved significantly over the years in part because of the lessons learned by using these methods to understand the mistakes and oversights of the past. Yet all too often, the industry has not been able to use data about accidents, incidents and other system anomalies to become aware of existing or emerging safety problems in time to take preventive measures. Just as traditional product design and manufacturing methods eventually gave way to new, improved principles and methods, a new safety information paradigm, with much greater sensitivity to anomalies in daily aviation system operations, could help the industry reach Zero Accidents. Just as aviation product improvements of the past have been fostered by technological advances, improvements in aviation safety monitoring and alerting will become possible as a result of major advances in information management technology. An Outline of a New Safety Monitoring Paradigm The industry must develop a significantly improved operational early warning capability that is sensitive enough to detect and alert the aviation community to existing and emerging problems. A major aspect of this capability is the sharing of safety information, both within categories in the industry, e.g., carriers must share with other carriers and manufacturers with other manufacturers; and across categories, e.g., labor, management, carriers, manufacturers, air traffic controllers, airport operators, and others must share with each other. Creating useful information, however, generally requires the collection of large amounts of data, and it also involves the careful analysis of that data. Rarely would there be any need or desire to share any raw data, but the sharing of the analysis of the data -- the information -- could be mutually beneficial. Gathering and analyzing large amounts of qualitative and quantitative aviation safety data to better understand routine system operations is the foundation of the Global Analysis and Information Network (GAIN) concept. The GAIN system would be more sensitive to conditions that signal increased safety risks because it would contain information about normal aviation system operations. The statistical baseline for normal aviation operations, constructed with digital flight and ATC radar data, among other major and currently untapped sources, would be the plumb line from which deviations are measured. The importance of obtaining information about a far greater percentage of aircraft operations has been illustrated repeatedly by all-too-typical accident investigation findings of earlier flights that experienced problems similar to the accident aircraft. A truly effective early warning capability would involve significant improvements in information feedback and analysis for aviation operations. At a minimum, the GAIN concept would add the following new elements to the existing monitoring systems to improve sensitivity : -- New data sources that would improve risk assessment and provide a baseline for normal flight operations, thus improving the chances of early anomaly detection. -- New and innovative data management and analytical techniques and methodologies that quickly reveal obscure and/or infrequent data patterns and associations. -- New methods to disseminate the findings quickly and globally to all who could use them to improve aviation safety. Analytical Strategies and Automated Tools - The proposed analysis process would be based upon new sources of information and new information technology capabilities. First, information from voluntary reporting programs (such as the confidential Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), or the Air Safety Reports (ASR) used by certain airlines) and mandatory incident reporting systems (such as the Pilot Deviation or Runway Incursion data bases) would be subjected to a range of analysis tools. These include advanced data pattern searches -- which can be performed autonomously on the data by ''intelligent agent'' automation tools to discover patterns or associations, finding the ''needle in the haystack.'' ''Intelligent agent'' software would aid analysts in discovering thematic associations in text data bases, and data visualization tools would show the analyst associations in data base elements. Application of such data mining analysis tools would provide a more focused understanding of operational safety concerns much sooner than current analysis techniques. The data management and analysis take place in a ''data warehouse'' where operational data are extracted from existing systems and, through a series of steps that standardize and improve the quality of the data, the data are transformed into a data base designed for targeted analysis. Within a ''data warehouse'' environment, safety analysts can employ various data mining strategies. Once existing or emerging safety concerns are identified, hypotheses that are developed to explain them can be tested using empirical digital flight data, ATC radar data, or other appropriate data sources. A focus on remedial measures would at times result from an analysis of digital flight data or ATC automated data, both vast sources of empirical data. As a result of new information technologies, we have the capability, for the first time, to monitor and analyze the parameters of safe and normal flight. Until very recently, it has been very difficult to obtain accurate and reliable information on normal flight operations. Now, thanks to new computer technologies, we can use flight data recorder and radar information to generate large amounts of very accurate and detailed information about flight performance. For example, the Boeing 777 records information on 700 flight parameters 8 times a second. Several countries, mostly in Europe, have programs in which a carrier or civil aviation agency routinely monitors and analyzes operational data captured on flight data recorders. Statistical analysis of digital data or ATC automated data from normal flights would yield a baseline of routine operations that can be used to detect variations from norms. In addition, baseline statistics would help safety analysts quantify operating risks within, as well as beyond, the envelope of normal operations. By collecting and analyzing information primarily about what went wrong, we are missing the opportunity to learn what was done right to avoid an accident or incident in earlier situations. End of Part 1. (0130)

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