Social Security Administration, Office of Acquisition and Grants, 1710 Gwynn Oak Avenue, Baltimore, Maryland 21207-0696

B -- EXPERT ECONOMETRICIAN SUPPORT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ESTIMATES OF THE POOL OF MEDICAL ELIGIBLES FOR SSA'S DISABILITY PROGRAMS POC Alan R. Tokosch Tel: 410-965-9492 The Social Security Administrations (SSA) seeks an expert econometrician, with substantial research experience in specific areas, to provide technical services in developing procedures for producing key disability estimates. Under this contract, a procedure for estimating the number of persons medically eligible for SSA's disability programs will be developed and a preliminary estimate of the size of the (medically) eligible pool will be produced. The estimates will be based on microsimulation techniques, using relationships econometrically estimated with a multistaged logit model of the disability determination process used by SSA. In a recent report, the Disability Policy Panel of the National Academy of Social Insurance noted that not knowing the size of the population potentially eligible for Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income represents a basic gap in our knowledge of the disability programs. The pool of eligibles represents the upward bound on program growth. It also represents the net effect of program eligibility criteria and trends relating to health and other demographic factors. Candidates must have Ph.D in economics, with econometrics as an area of specialization. He or she must have substantial research experience in each of the following areas: (1) designing and implementing complex econometric models in a personal computer environment; estimating econometric models of SSA's disability determination process using data on individuals; (2) using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation; (3) using data from SSA's 831 records; (4) estimating models using maximum likelihood estimation, categorical variables, or logit techniques; and, (5) estimating models which are especially complex, such as multistage models or nested models. The candidate must have expertise in each of the following areas: SSA's disability programs and SSA's procedure for determining disability status; health economics; and econometric software, specifically, SAS/PC, Limdep, and GAUSS. Interested parties are requested to submit capability statements including supporting education and experience background by August 5, 1996. Only written responses will be accepted and the capability statements must clearly state the ability to provide the above required services. In addition, pertinent background experience information consisting of references where similar services in scope and nature have recently and/or currently being performed shall be provided. Reference information should include the name, address, and telephone number of a point of contact who is knowledgeable of the nature of the services performed by the firm. The information respondents provide shall pertain to the synopsis only: cross referencing to material previously submitted is not recommended and will not be evaluated. No contract award will be made on the basis of responses received to this announcement. However, this information will be used in SSA's assessment of capable sources. Respondents will not be notified of the results of the evaluation of the source data received. THIS IS NOT A REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS. Requests for copies of a solicitation will not be honored or acknowledged. The Government does not intend to pay for information solicited or received. No cost or pricing data is required or requested. (0204)

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