Minerals Management Service, Box 25165, Mail Stop 2730, Denver Federal Center, Denver, CO 80225-0165

B -- COMPLIANCE REENGINEERING STATISTICAL SUPPORT SOL 1435-02-97-RP-00001 DUE 040197 POC Todd Leneau, Contracting Officer, (303) 275-7385 The Minerals Management Service (MMS) intends to contract on a sole-source basis with Robert A. Hardwell, PH.D., Denver, Colorado, for Compliance Reengineering Statistical Support services in support of the MMS mission to determine and collect oil and gas royalty payments from leasees. These services require the design and development of software modifications and extension to the MMS Auditor's Sampling Toolkit (ASkit) and require intimate knowledge of the ASkit. It is also required that the contractor have experience as an expert court witness with an understanding of legal requirements for justifying analytical results as these results have historically been challenged in court by leasees. The services involve applying statistically sound procedures to select leases to be audited for gauging overall company compliance and to apply statistical estimation of underpayment or violation after the audit findings are established. The contractor is to use the Auditor's Sampling Toolkit (ASkit) to statistically select audit transactions. The contractor shall develop statistical procedures to identify agreements, leases, and lease-months as entities with a higher likelihood of finding royalty underpayments when audited. Additionally the contractor shall develop a training course and provide on-site training to MMS Compliance Division locations in the basics of random sampling, stratified sampling techniques, and the use of the data and procedures to perform lease selection and extrapolation of audit findings for enforcement or negotiations. Other sources may have the technical ability to perform statistical analysis, but we know of no other source who has the professional and technical knowledge of the Auditor's Sampling Toolkit to be able to make the necessary modifications in the software program and who has the experience as an expert court witness to defend any possible challenges to the findings from this program. Other entities may be able to obtain experience to meet this requirement but it would be a costly and time consuming process resulting in a delay of the program and duplication of costs to the Government that cannot be recovered through a competitive acquisition. Although this is not a solicitation of proposals, all responsible sources may submit a bid, proposal, or quotation which shall be considered. Any responses received will be evaluated on the following criteria: 1. Demonstrated knowledge of statistics, including a Ph.D. and published books or articles. 2. Demonstrated experience of at least five years performing statistical analysis of Complex business or government applications. 3. Demonstrated knowledge of production and sales reporting required of minerals industry by the Federal Oil and Gas Royalty Management Act of 1982 (30 USC 1701), and 4. Demonstrated experience as an expert court witness explaining and defending statistical processes and results. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals. Copies of the solicitation document are not available. This will be the Government's only notice of this requirement. See Numbered Notes 22 and 26. (0051)

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