Social Security Administration, Office of Acquisition and Grants, 1710 Gwynn Oak Avenue, Baltimore, Md. 21207-0696

B -- EXPERT ECONOMETRICIAN TO CONDUCT DISABILITY PROGRAM RESEARCH. DUE 062797 POC Alan R (Dick) Tokosch Tel: 410-965-9492 The Social Security Administration (SSA) intends to negotiate with, and award on a Sole Source basis, a contract for an Expert Econometrician to Play Major Role in Disability Program Research, Specializing in Estimating Whether Household Survey Respondents are Eligible for the SSA's Disability Programs, Using a Previously-Estimated Multi-Stage Econometrics Model of the Multi-Step Disability Determination Process Estimated with Data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation Exact-Matched to SSA's 831 Data. The contract will be for one Base Year with up to four one year Option periods. The intended source is Dr. Jianting Hu of Washington, DC. who performed the initial research described herein. The proposed contractor, an expert econometrician with substantial research experience shall provide technical services designed to produce key disability estimates. The proposed contractor will use an already-estimated multi-stage logit econometrics model of the disability determination process to estimate whether individuals represented in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are eligible for SSA's disability programs (Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income) on the basis of medical criteria. The proposed contractor will then use this eligibility estimation tool in research efforts on topics including: (1) estimating an econometrics model of the decision to apply for Disability Insurance benefits using household survey (SIPP) data; (2) estimating an econometrics model of the decision to apply for SSI/disability benefits using household survey (SIPP) data; (3) simulating the effects of increasing the social security retirement age on disability programs; (4) estimating the number in the general population eligible for DI and SSI in terms of both medical and financial criteria; and (5) studying to what extent and by what mechanisms the recession of the early nineties affected the growth in the disability programs. First Year Tasks: Applications Model of the Disability InsuranceProgram. -- In the initial year of the contract, the work would entail to undertake a preliminary model of the applications process for the Disability Insurance program. The model will consider a broad array of factors that may affect decisions to apply for benefits (whereas some subsequent studies will consider specific factors in more depth). While this effort will represent SSA's first effort to understand recent DI program growth by studying households and families, the model will be preliminary in a number of respects. For example, it may be based on a small sample, individual (rather than couple) decision making, and a crude model of benefit size. Nonetheless, the model will be used to consider how program growth has been affected by such factors as the economic recession in the early nineties, job loss by any member of the household, or the loss or absence of health insurance. There will be six subtasks:(1) Survey the literature relating to the decision to apply for disability benefits, disability models, application models for public programs, behavioral processes, examples of the use of household data in analyzing disability or disability programs(30 days). (2) Compile a list of hypotheses to be tested in modeling the decision to apply for Disability Insurance. The list should include possible variables from the primary data source (the Survey of Income and Program Participation) which could be used to test each hypothesis(60 days). (3) Link administrative data to the survey data as necessary -- for example, 831 disability data, DOT data, DDS workload data, SER earnings data, and benefit data. (90 days) (4) Add person-specific or family-specific programmatic information, such as estimates of DI insured status, and the size of the DI benefit (if eligible) to the data set. (150 days) (5) Create a computer program which models the decision to apply for Disability Insurance benefits. This involves estimating which factors are important in the decision making process as well as the direction and magnitude of the effects. (350 days) (6) Fully comment and document programs associated with the above-mentioned tasks, and compile two copies of a binder documenting the phases of the project. (365 days) Because the model and estimates involve the use of confidential data, the contractor will perform all data processing tasks on site using secured computing facilities at the ORES offices located in Washington, DC. Any potential source who can meet the requirements listed below, and who believes they can provide the required services should submit a written statement of capabilities to the contracting office listed above within 15 calender days of this notice. Potential offers should clearly address all criteria listed below including the ability to work in Washington D.C.; and provide at least three (3) references where work of similar nature and scope has been performed in the past three years; or is currently being performed. References should include the name and telephone number of a knowledgeable "point of contact" who can provide substantiating information regarding the experience/capabilities and the performance/quality of work. Potential Candidates must meet all of the following requirements: Candidates must have a Ph.D. in economics, with econometrics and health as areas of specialization. Expertise in the use of data from both the Survey of Income and Program Participation and SSA disability determination records (831 data) linked through exact matching, as demonstrated in at least one high quality research report. Expertise in SSA's disability determination process and experience in estimating a multi-stage econometrics model of SSA's multi-step disability determination process using survey data on individuals linked to 831 disability data, demonstrated in at least one high quality research report. Work on the project must be performed in ORES office space, due to the use of confidential data and, to a lesser extent, due to the need to consult on questions about SSA disability programs and the survey and administrative data used. Candidates must have research experience in the following areas: designing and implementing complex econometrics models in a personal computer environment; estimating models using maximum likelihood estimation, categorical variables, and logit techniques; estimating complex models, such as multistage models or nested models; and using econometrics software, specifically, SAS/PC, Limdep, and GAUSS This information will be used only to evaluate the capabilities of other potential sources. Respondents will not be notified of the results of the evaluations. THIS IS NOT A REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS. Requests for copies of a solicitation will not be acknowledged. The Government does not intend to pay for information solicited or received. No Cost or Pricing data is required at this time.Copies of the solicitation will only be provided in response to written or faxed requests received directly from the requestor. Telephone requests will not be honored. All responsible sources may submit a bid, proposal or quotation which shall be considered by the agency. (0161)

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