U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Research Service, Administrative and Financial Management, Procurement and Property Branch, 14th & Independence Avenue, S.W., Room 1310 South Building, Washington, D.C. 20250

B -- ECONOMIC FORECASTS SOL ER-98-001 POC Elizabeth Rustin, Contracting Officer, (202) 720-5243 The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) is seeking a contractor to provide data intensive reports containing consistent U.S. and international macroeconomic analyses and forecasts, covering a minimum of 25 countries, on a quarterly basis. ERS also requires reports of macroeconomic analysis and forecasts updated and delivered on a monthly basis with a minimum coverage of each of the G7 plus consistent industry projections for the U.S., Japan and Europe. Forecasts are to be for a quarter ahead, a year ahead and longer term, up to a minimum of ten years ahead. These forecasts are to be generated by a world macroeconometric model that will also be required by ERS as a part of this procurement. The macroeconometric model must have the following characteristics: ability to generate forecasts for a minimum of ten years ahead covering the major macroeconomic variables for the OECD countries, plus linked models containing key macroeconomic variables for as many as possible other, primarily developing and transition countries. All country models are to be fully integrated, so that the model endogenously solves for each country's GDP growth, interest and exchange rates, prices and trade flowsand estimates of unemployment rates. The model must be to be run by ERS users as a PC-based menu-driven application that is easy to use; allows users to change exogenous assumptions and resolve the model, track the performance of equations over history, add new endogenous equations, replace existing endogenous equations, graph data, produce tables, and export data to spreadsheets, graphics and other statistical packages, such as Eviews and SAS. ERS also requires service to support the use and interpretation of the model's results and vendor forecasts. The vendor must also install the econometric model on an ERS computer station or LAN and provide training in the use of the model. Interested parties should submit a written request with four self addressed mailing labels to the Contracting Officer. Telephonic requests will not behonored. This is a small business set-aside. Written quotations (RFQs) will be used. The projected award date is the second quarter of FY'98. See Note 1. (0365)

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