National Cancer Institute, Research Contracts Branch, PSAS, 6120 Executive Blvd, EPS/Room 638, Bethesda, MD 20892-7227

A -- RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT SOL RFQ-NCI-90018 DUE 121898 POC Cynthia Brown, Purchasing Agent, 301-402-4509, Todd Cole, Contracting Officer The Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Div. of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics of the National Cancer Institutes, intends to procure the services of Senes Oak Ridge, Inc., 102 Donner Drive, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 37830, to analyze the critical elements of uncertainty in creating Radioepidemiological Tables for calculating the probability that a given cancer was "caused by a particular radiation exposure. Specifically, Senes Oak Ridge will identify and summarize the various sources of uncertainty, estimate their magnitude, and determine how they may have influenced the "probability of causation"(PC)" values. Dr. Owen Hoffman of Senes Oak Ridge Inc., will work with NCI staff to evaluate statistical and subjective uncertainties attached to each of the various components of the estimated, radiation-related excess relative risk, of being diagnosed with particular cancers at specific ages, for otherwise typical members of the U.S. population. These components will include organ-specific radiation dose, age at exposure, sex, estimated dose-specific risk coefficients, and their transfer to a U.S. population, exposure to other carcinogens, and other factors to be specified by NCI staff that may to influence radiation-related risk. The contractor will evaluate the combined effect of the individual uncertainties on the estimated probability of radiation causation in particular cases. The end products will be a user-friendly, interactive computer program for computing and uncertainty distribution for probability of radiation causation (defined as excess relative risk divided by 1 + excess relative risk) given specified information about the individual with cancer, including type of cancer, age and date of diagnosis, sex, history of radiation exposure of direct interest (e.g., occupational exposure), and of indirect interest (e.g., therapeutic radiation for treatment of an earlier cancer, and other risk factors such as smoking history and reproductive history. The purpose of the tables is to give a probabilistic assessment of the likelihod that a particular case of cancer diagnosed at a particular time in a particular person, can be ascribed to a particular history of radiation exposure. This assessment is a complex process, and the answer in each case will take into account various statistical and subjective uncertainties. As an update to a report published in 1985, these tables will incorporate our growing knowledge of radiation carcinogenesis and sophisticated statistical techniques that have been improved over the past 15 years. The primary information used for estimating health risks from exposure to ionizing radiation is the dose-response relationship for an exposed cohort of individuals. The uncertainties involved in the assessment of health risks include individual dose estimates, the accuracy of health outcomes, statistical uncertainty from investigation of finite populations, fitting models appropriate for the data, pooling data from different sources or disparate studies, extrapolation from the study population to the target population, and the handling of missing data. NCI is committed to completing this work by Ocotober 31, 1999. Senes Oak Ridge is the only source known to NCI that can perform this work within the time frame. Dr. Hoffman is a world renowed expert in the field of uncertainty analysis-accounting for uncertainties in dose estimation and its impact on radiation dose-response analyses. He has the capability of providing the software structure for constructing these radioepidemiological tables, as well as the expertise necessary to considerthe essential issues of uncertainties. However, if any other interested party believes it can perform the above work within the specified time period and has significant experience in both of the above areas, if may submit a statement of capabilities. The statement of capabilities and any other information furnished must be in writing and must contain material in sufficient detail to allow NCI to determine if the party can perform this requirement. Capabilities statements must be received in the contracting office by 2:00 p.m. EST, on Dec. 18, 1998. for further information or questions please contact Cynthia Brown, Purchasing Agent, 301-402-4509. A determination by the Government not to compete this proposed requirement based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion fo the Government. Information received will be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement. Posted 12/01/98 (W-SN275857). (0335)

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