U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Division of Contracts, Attn: Linda Wise MS-T-7I2, Washington, D.C. 20555

A -- IMPROVED FIRE RISK ANALYSIS (FRA) METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINATION OF THE FREQUENCY OF CHALLENGING FIRES". SOL RS-RES-99-045 DUE 051199 POC Contact: Amy Siller, Contract Specialist, 301-415-6747 The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is seeking phase one research proposals with innovative ideas for developing an improved fire risk assessment (FRA) method for quantifying the frequency of potentially challenging fires in nuclear power plants. The improved method should result in the definition of fire scenarios applicable to a given location in a plant, the frequency of such scenarios, and the characteristics of such scenarios. The characteristics should be specified in terms that will support subsequent fire modeling, i.e., they will provide (at least in part) the initial conditions for models predicting the behavior of the fire following initiation. The method should employ U.S. nuclear power plant historical fire event data. Relevant data and/or other forms of technical information from other sources (e.g., non-nuclear industrial facilities) should also be used, as appropriate. The method should include an explicit quantification of uncertainties in results. FRAs often adjust empirically estimated fire frequencies to account for the location and severity characteristics of specific, hypothesized fires. However, the basis for these adjustments is not strong. A number of early studies have relied heavily on the analyst's judgment. Attempts to reduce the influence of judgment have led to: (a) the component-based approach to fire frequency, employed in the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Fire-Induced Vulnerability Evaluation (FIVE) methodology; and (b) event-based estimation of severity fractions. In these later methods, subjective judgement (e.g., in the interpretation of event narratives) still plays a significant role. Moreover, none of these methods provide the physical characteristics of the fires needed to perform subsequent fire modeling. Proposals for developing improved methods will be expected to discuss how the proposed methods will address the above technical issues. This synopsis constitutes a Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) per FAR 6.102(d)(2)(i) which covers two project phases. The first phase is to investigate the feasibility of developing a practical, improved methodology for defining, characterizing, and quantifying the frequency of nuclear power plant fire scenarios, and to submit a proposal to fully develop and demonstrate the improved methodology. The second phase (to commence only upon approval of the NRC technical monitor for the contract) will be to fully develop and demonstrate the proposed, improved methodology. The NRC reserves the option to approve for continuation into phase two all of the phase-one-produced proposals, certain selected proposal(s), or none of the proposals. There will be no formal request for proposals (RFP) or other solicitation in regard to this BAA. The NRC reserves the right to select all, some, or none of the proposals received in response to this announcement. Written proposals may be submitted by all concerns -- small businesses, large businesses and universities, etc. -- and will be accepted until 5:00 PM EST on May 11, 1999. All written proposals will be held until the closing date and then will be reviewed by a source evaluation panel. One or two firm, fixed price type contract awards are anticipated to be awarded as a result of this BAA. The estimated budget range for a contract will be $20K to $30K for phase one, with the amount(s) for phase two to be determined by the proposal(s) that result from phase one, which are therefore unknown at this time (however, budget constraints likely will prevent individual amount(s) for phase two from exceeding $100K for each proposal that is approved for continuation into phase two). Offerors shall submit their written technical proposals for phase one (four copies) and written cost proposals for phase one (four copies with appropriate cost breakdown per FAR Table 15-2) to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Division of Contracts and Property Management, Mail Stop T-7-l-2, 11545 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852. Proposals shall contain a cover page including proposal title, technical and administrative points of contact with telephone and facsimile numbers and email address, and be followed by a letter signed by an authorized official specifying the proposal validity period (at least 90 days). Offerors shall submit technical proposals with the following minimum information: (1) a resume for the principal investigator outlining his relevant education, experience, and publications; (2) a narrative setting forth the proposed statement of work describing in detail the features and merits of the new FRA methodology with respect to the requirements stated at the beginning of this section and with respect to current methodologies, describing the proposed plan and schedule for performing the phase one work (phase one should be completed within three months following contract initiation), describing what criteria will be used to determine the success of the research, and describing what different alternatives were considered or are available; (3) a narrative describing the proposed organization's experience in performing the subject type of research; and (4) a description of the sources of information which the offeror is proposing to use including the offeror's degree of access to these sources. Proposals will be evaluated and selected for award based on the following factors: (1) Overall Technical Merit and Soundness of the Approach -- the extent to which the phase one proposal reflects a sound technical approach to study the feasibility of developing a practical, improved methodology for determination of the frequency of challenging fires, and that demonstrates competence with PRA and FRA models and techniques (40%).; (2) Personnel Qualifications and Experience -- the extent to which the phase one proposal demonstrates that the key personnel are highly qualified and have experience in the necessary technical areas (30%); and (3) Project Management for Effective Quality, Project Duration, and Cost Control -- the extent to which the phase one proposal provides the NRC with confidence that the phase two proposal (that will be developed during phase one) will propose development and demonstration of the methodology for a reasonable cost and within a reasonable time period, and that the proposed work will actually be completed as presented in the proposal (30%).***** Posted 03/26/99 (W-SN313058). 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