DOC; Mountain Administrative Support Center; Acquisition Management Division; 325 Broadway MC3; Boulder, CO

B -- 96FORECASTING OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC CLOUDS SOL NRMGJ-900097DT DUE 062899 POC Doris Turner, Purchasing Agent, 303-497-3872; Fax: 303- 497-3163 E-MAIL: NOAA; MASC Acquisition Management, Doris.P.Turner@noaa.gov. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Space Environment Center (SEC) is currently implementing the Chen L1 prediction scheme for detecting the approach to Earth of magnetic clouds ejected from the Sun. These ejections are known to cause major geomagnetic storms. The Chen = scheme, which uses near-real-time data from L1 satellites (such as ACE), provides in principle a one-hour warning of the onset of geomagnetic activity. It is well established, however, that the Chen scheme on its own is subject to frequent false alarms and other inaccuracies, largely stemming from the sole application of L1 monitor data. A key part of the implementation process is therefore to enhance the reliability of the basic scheme by incorporating additional data relating to conditions at the solar source. Moreover, the additional solar data, if successfully adapted, should enable one-two days advance warning of the magnetic cloud approach, as opposed to the one-hour warning afforded by the current versionof the Chen scheme. SEC needs to verify whether observations of eruptive filamentary structures in the lower solar atmosphere can provide the requisite information. It has been suggested in recent scientific meetings and internet exchanges that the orientation, polarity, and chirality of certain active magnetic arcade structures observed on-disk in = H-alpha emission can be related to geoeffective interplanetary disturbances seen at = Earth several days after the structure erupts. To test the hypothesis, a run of several months observations of solar features would be compared to in-situ solar wind observations by WIND, ACE, and other near-Earth interplanetary monitors. The proof would consist in demonstrating a high degree of correlation between the timing, polarity, and temporal pattern of variation of the interplanetary magnetic structures observed in-situ with the predicted properties based on the solar observations. = A sufficient sampling (preferably 100 or more) of such events would need to be analyzedto provide adequate statistical basis for the verification study. Specifically, H-alpha observations of solar filament and filament barb substructures near = disk center need to taken, and the orientation of the filament axis, the relative angle of the barbs, and the chirality (dextral or sinistral) of the structure need to be determined. In addition, these determinations are to be related to the potential CME helicity categories as defined by Mulligan et al (GRL, 1998, submitted). Next, these observations are to be related to SOHO, YOHKOH, and other solar spacecraft data and imagery = to determine the relation to CME activity. Finally, predictions must be made of the properties of the interplanetary structures resulting from the solar disturbances, and these must be related to actual in situ observations near Earth, such = as from the ACE, WIND, and IMP spacecraft. To support SEC operational goals, the predictions should be made in near-real-time mode, and preliminary analyses should be communicated periodically to SEC. A report summarizing the statistical results of the study is required. Because the raw solar H-alpha filament data = must be evaluated in light of many other data streams to provide a useful product, demonstrated skill and experience in observational and theoretical aspects of solar research is required to complete the task. Evidence of such skill would consist of published papers on the subject of filaments and their relation to CME and interplanetary phenomena, and would include a proven record of participation in scientific = conferences and meetings. The period of performance of the ONR funding for = implementing the Chen prediction scheme lends urgency to obtaining and verifying the requisite solar data. Hence, it is essential that the observations described above = begin immediately and that they be completed by the end of September, 1999. The final report needs to be filed by the end of November, 1999. Interested sources proposing to supply equivalent services must submit a written qualification statement clearly establishing capability to meet the above requirements within 15 days from the date of this synopsis. The qualification statements will be used to determine the need for competitive bids. In the absence of other qualified sources, it is the intent of the Government to negotiate a sole source contract under the authority of = 41 U.S.C. 253(c)(1) with Helio Research, 5212 Maryland Avenue, La Crescenta, CA 91214 as this source is considered to be the only responsible source and no = other items will satisfy agency requirements. These are the only specifications. There is no bid package available. This announcement/solicitation is being issued = under the Simplified Acquisition Procedures, FAR Part 13 (NTE $100,000.00). The award decision will be based upon the best value to the Government, with technical merit and past performance being more important than price. Terms and conditions and agency level protest procedures are referenced at http://www.doc.gov/oam/conops/#REFERENCE. Responses are due by June = 24, 1999 either via fax or mail. No RFQ package is available. Posted 06/11/99 (D-SN342241). (0162)

Loren Data Corp. http://www.ld.com (SYN# 0013 19990615\B-0002.SOL)