U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contracts Management Division (MD-33), Attention: OARSC, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

A -- ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY IN EMISSIONS ESTIMATION SOL DC9481 DUE 071999 POC Lois Monroe, Procurement Technician, (919) 541-3699/Karen Cox, Contracting Officer, (919) 541-3699 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, has a requirement for analysis of uncertainty and variability in emissions estimation. The analysis will be utilized for Emission Inventories (EIs), which are a vital component of environmental decision making. The requirements include (1) refinement and augmentation of probabilistic utility NOx activity and emissions factors, which shall employ, in part, database assembly and evaluation; visualize data by developing empirical cumulative distribution functions; select, fit, and critique alternative parametric probability distribution models, etc., to be presented suitable for publication at a national technical conference and/or suitable for publication in a peer-reviewed journal; (2) development of a prototype software tool, and (3) technical and user documentation of the prototype software tool. The objectives of this project are to: (a) demonstrate a general probabilistic approach for quantification of variability and uncertainty in emission factors and emission inventories; (b) demonstrate the general probabilistic approaches regarding ranges of variability and uncertainty in both emission factors and emission inventories; (c) demonstrate how probabilistic analysis can be used to identify key sources of variability and uncertainty in an inventory for purposes of targeting additional work to improve the quality of the inventory; (d) develop a prototype software tool for calculating variability and uncertainty in statewide inventories for a selected emission source and pollutant; and (e) facilitate the transfer of the general approach and prototype software tool to inventory preparers via development of appropriate technical and software documentation of the approach and the prototype software. The SIC code is 8999. It is anticipated that the request for quotation (RFQ) will be issued on or around July 9, 1999 and that quotations will be expected 10 days after issuance. This RFQ will be carried out under Simplified Acquisition Procedures. The period of performance shall be as follows: Deliverables are due within 4 months of the effective date of award. All interested parties may obtain a copy of the solicitation by submitting a request to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contracts Management Division (MD-33), ATTN: Lois Monroe, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711. No telephone requests will be honored. Posted 06/24/99 (W-SN346614). (0175)

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