Defense Supply Service-Washington, 5200 Army Pentagon, Rm. 1D245, Washington, DC 20310-5200

B -- RUSSIA IN THE FIRST DECADE OF THE 21ST CENTURY: AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE AND THREATS TO U.S. SECURITY POC Karen O. Kolosvary, Contracting Officer, 703-614-6846 WEB: http://www.hqda.army.mil/dssw, http://dbdnet.gpo.gov/ACCEPT.template. E-MAIL: www.hqda.army.mil/dssw/, KolosKO@hqda.army.mil. The Defense Supply Service-Washington intends to award a contract, on a sole source basis to Michigan State University for a research and analysis effort, "Russia in the First Decade of the 21st Century: An Uncertain Future and Threats to US Security." The purpose of the effort is to conduct research and analysis concerning the two major socio-political tendencies of current Russian political disintegration. The study will comprehensively evaluate the growing imperial tendencies, while at the same time exhibiting trends toward regionalization and national disintegration, currently and in the aftermath of a potential future aggressive and repressive dictatorship, which could result from these tendencies, and to evaluate, selectively, the policy of the Russian leadership toward the former Soviet Republics, East and West Europe, the USA, China, and the rest of the world. This project will deal with the current turmoil in Russia, which resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union. This study will analyzesome of the circumstances that fuel this tumultuous environment, such as: the dwindling authority of Russia's central government in the face of a vast territory of extremely heterogeneous regions which it must govern, the continuing decline of Russia's economy and standard of living; increasing social differentiation; and feelings of humiliation of a nation that once enjoyed super-power prestige and now suffers second-class status in the international arena as well as in the former Soviet Republics. In addition, this project will examine the possibilities for Russia to stablize these corrosive trends: a successful economic restructuring that benefits the majority of the population, and the imposition of a strong authoritative regime. The current failure of the central government to achieve an economic miracle based on privatization and marketization compels various forces in Russia to turn toward restoration of the Empire as a substitute, if unrealistic, major national goal. Also of special importance are the foreign policy predilections of these nationalistic groups. Posted 06/13/00 (W-SN464315). (0165)

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