DOC; Mountain Administrative Support Center; Acquisition Management Division; 325 Broadway, MC3; Boulder, CO

B -- ANALYZING FILAMENT ERUPTIONS IN RELATION TO ASSOCIATED CMES, INTERPLANETARY EVENTS & GEOMAGNETIC STORMS SOL NRMAJ-71DT DUE 081400 POC Doris Turner, Purchasing Agent, 303-497-3872; Fax: 303- 497-3163 E-MAIL: NOAA; MASC Acquisition Management, Doris.P.Turner@noaa.gov. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Space Environment Center (SEC) is currently implementing the Chen L1 prediction scheme = for detecting the approach to Earth of magnetic clouds ejected from the Sun. These ejections are known to cause major geomagnetic storms. The Chen scheme, which uses near-real-time data from L1 satellites (such as ACE), provides a one-hour warning of the onset of geomagnetic activity. It is well established that the Chen scheme on its own is subject to frequent = false alarms and other inaccuracies, largely stemming from the sole application of L1 monitor data. A key part of the implementation process is therefore to enhance the reliability of the basic scheme by incorporating additional data relating to conditions at the solar source. Moreover, the additional solar data, if successfully adapted, should enable one-two days advance warning of the magnetic cloud approach, as opposed to the one-hour warning afforded by the current version of the Chen scheme. SEC needs to verify whether observations of eruptive = filamentary structures in the lower solar atmosphere can provide the requisite information. It has been suggested in recent scientific meetings and internet exchanges that the orientation, polarity, and chirality of certain active magnetic arcade structures observed on-disk in H-alpha emission can be related to geoeffective interplanetary disturbances seen at Earth several days after the structure erupts. In a previous project, a run of several months observations of solar phenomena likely to be related to geomagnectic activity were obtained. H-alpha observations of solar filament and filament barb substructures near disk center were taken, and the orientation of the filament axis, the relative angle of the barbs, and the chirality (dextral or sinistral) of the structure were determined. In addition these determinations were related to CME helicity categories and a preliminary effort was made to relate these observations to CME activity as recorded by SOHO, YOHKOH, and other solar spacecraft data and imagery. For these observations to support the SEC implementation of the Chen prediction scheme, a full analysis of the previous data set needs to be undertaken. Specifically SEC needs to 1) ascertain how many disk-center eruptive filament events can be unambiguously related to SOHO coronograph =93halo=94 = events and to in-situ interplanetary events; 2) classify the in-situ magnetic structures in terms of the likely solar CME events; 3) establish the observational characteristics, if any, which distinguish filaments about to erupt; 4) determine whether geomagnetc storms are related in any systematic way to the orientation and twist of pre-eruptive solar filaments. Because the raw solar data must be evaluated in light of many other data streams to provide a useful product, demonstrated skill and experience in observational and theoretical aspects of solar research = is required to complete the task. Evidence of such skill would consist of published papers on the subject of filaments and their relation to CME and interplanetary phenomena, and would include a proven record of participation in scientific conferences and meetings. The period of performance of the ONR funding for implementing the Chen prediction scheme lends urgency to obtaining and verifying the requisite solar data. It is essential that the study described = above begin immediately and that it be completed by the end of December, 2000. This announcement/solicitation is being issued under the Simplified Acquisition Procedures, FAR Part 13 (NTE $100,000.00). This synopsis is issued for information only. No competitive solicitation is planned. No award will be made on the basis of requests in response to this notice. Information = submitted in response to this notice will be used to determine whether on not use of competitive procedures to fulfill this requirement would be in the Government=92s best interest and must address qualifications pertinent to this requirement. In the absence of other qualified sources, it is the intent of the Government to negotiate a sole source contract under the authority of 41 U.S.C. 253(c)(1) with Helio Research, 5212 Maryland Avenue, La Crescenta, CA 91214 as this source is considered to be the only responsible source and no other items will satisfy agency requirements. These are the only specifications. There is no bid package available. The award decision will be based upon the best value to the Government, with technical merit and past performance = being more important than price. Terms and conditions and agency level protest procedures are referenced at http://www.doc.gov/oam/conops/#reference . Responses are due by August 14, 2000 either via fax or mail. No RFQ package is available. Posted 07/18/00 (D-SN476012). (0200)

Loren Data Corp. http://www.ld.com (SYN# 0015 20000720\B-0004.SOL)

| B - Special Studies and Analyses - Not R&D Index  |  Issue Index |