Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Procurement Operations Branch, MS2500, 381 Elden Street, Herndon, Virginia 20170-4817

B -- ALTERNATIVE OIL SPILL OCCURRENCE ESTIMATORS FOR THE BEAUFORT/CHUKCHI SEA OCS SOL RFQ 17141 DUE 082800 POC Wallace Adcox, Contracting Officer, (703) 787-1362 E-MAIL: Contracting Officer's E-mail, wallace.adcox@mms.gov. This is a request for quotation under FAR part 13. No separate RFQ will be issued. All information is contained in this CBD Announcement. THE SIC CODE FOR THIS PROCUREMENT IS 8731. THIS REQUIREMENT IS OPEN TO ALL RESPONSIBLE BIDDERS REGARDLESS OF SIZE. PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO SMALL BUSINESSES. The Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS), intends to competitively award a contract to conduct a study entitled " Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for the Beaufort/Chukchi Sea OCS". This study will: 1) describe alternative approaches to estimating oil spill risk, 2) provide alternative oil spill risk occurrence estimator(s) for OCS Beaufort and Chukchi Sea exploration and development, for offshore OCS conditions under which extrapolation from existing spill data may be suspect, and 3) will provide statistical support to MMS in regard to statistical issues of spill rates and risk. ESTIMATED LEVEL OF EFFORT: The government estimates a period of performance for this contract of twelve (12) months and a price of between $75,000 to $100,000. BACKGROUND: The historical record for the OCS statistics used to calculate the national OCS oil spill rates is mostly from the Gulf of Mexico. This spill record does not include pipeline spills inshore of the OCS, in State waters or on land. The MMS Alaska OCS Region intends to calculate spill frequency based on Regional considerations, such as Alaska North Slope and Arctic Canada rather than on the Gulf of Mexico experience, and to include all major pipeline spills, both onshore and offshore, in environmental impact assessment. The first step in this process was a prior study (OCS Study MMS 2000-007) in FY 1999-2000 to collate readily available information on oil industry spills of at least 100 bbl in the Alaska North Slope and Arctic Canada, verify spill information for the larger spills (at least 500 bbl), and to estimate provisional spill rates for use in the nearshore Beaufort Sea OCS. Based on this prior study, MMS was able to extrapolate pipeline and oil field spill rates from Alaskan North Slope and Trans-Alaska Pipeline onshore oil spill experience to shallow coastal waters in the nearshore Beaufort Sea. The validity of this premise cannot be assumed for locations further from shore that might be offered in future oil and gas lease sales in Beaufort or Chukchi Seas. GOALS AND OBJECTIVES: Objectives of this study are to: 1) Evaluate the applicability of the results from the OCS Study MMS 2000-007 to deeper tracts that could be offered in Beaufort Sea Sale 176 or in subsequent Beaufort or Chukchi Sea lease sales; 2) Describe alternative approaches to estimating risk for Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea lease sales and development from spills of at least 500-1,000 bbl or more; 3) Develop preferred alternative statistics; 4) Provide statistical support to MMS in evaluation of statistical issues in estimation of oil spill rates. SCOPE OF WORK: TASK 1. POST-AWARD CONFERENCE WITH MMS -- Within three weeks of contract award, hold a post-award conference in Anchorage with Alaska OCS Region and Herndon MMS staff to insure a clear understanding by all of study tasks, concerns, and timelines. The Offeror shall: 1) Provide draft agenda to participants prior to the meeting; 2) Provide Meeting Summary to participants within one week of meeting; 3) List any changes needed to planned work as a result of the meeting. TASK 2. EVALUATE THE APPLICABILITY OF THE RESULTS FROM THE OCS STUDY MMS 2000-007 TO DEEPER TRACTS THAT COULD BE OFFERED IN BEAUFORT SEA SALE 176 OR IN SUBSEQUENT BEAUFORT OR CHUKCHI SEA LEASE SALES -- Review the spill data from the prior study and environmental hazards for the <200-m deep portion of Beaufort Sea Planning Area. Evaluate how the applicability of onshore oil spill statistics changes with water depth or environmental hazards as one moves further offshore in the Beaufort Sea. For example, the type of structures used will change since onshore-like gravel island developments are likely only out to a few meters water depth. Risk from ice gouging peaks in intermediate water depths (15-30 m). Base the evaluation on statistical considerations to the extent feasible. TASK 3. DESCRIBE ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO ESTIMATING OIL SPILL RISK FOR BEAUFORT SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA LEASE SALES AND DEVELOPMENT -- There are alternate approaches that can used to estimate spill rates in the absence of sufficient historical data. [An example of one approach would fault-tree analysis.] Review alternative approaches to estimating oil spill frequency for Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea both in exploration (including both OCS Sale Environmental Impact Statements and site-specific exploration plans) and development phases. Discuss strengths and weaknesses of each. Explain rationale for the contractor's recommendation of the most appropriate approach. TASK 4. DEVELOP PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE STATISTICS -- Provide draft oil spill rate estimates based on the most appropriate methods, suitable for both exploration and development phases. Also quantify robustness ofthe statistics (Confidence Limits on spill frequency estimates), and quantify precision/variance of estimates. Spill risk should in terms of the number spills of 500-1,000 bbl or more that are projected to occur. TASK 5. PROVIDE STATISTICAL SUPPORT TO MMS IN EVALUATION OF ISSUES IN ESTIMATION OF OIL SPILL RATES -- Provide 40 hours on-call statistical support over the contract to MMS staff developing Alaska-specific oil spill rates or responding to questions on statistical issues related to oil spills. Present findings in a contract workshop in Anchorage after completion of draft final report (Task7) and participate in an Alaska OCS Region Information Transfer Meeting in Anchorage. TASK 6. PROGRAM MANAGEMENT A) Program Management Plan: Operate under the program-management plan described in the proposal. A data management plan shall be incorporated in the program management plan. B) Interim Progress Report: Submit interim progress (letter) reports to the Contracting Officer's Technical Representative (COTR). The progress reports shall include: 1) A brief summary of all preceding work and overall progress made against the schedule; 2) A brief summary of significant technical, schedule, or cost problems encountered, including an assessment of their probable effects on meeting contract provisions; 3) A brief summary of any resolutions agreed to between Contractor and MMS regarding these problems; 4) A list of all significant meetings held, Task 5 consultations, or other contacts made in connection with the contract, including a brief summary of the participants and subject, date, location, and outcome of each such contact or meeting. TASK 7. FINAL REPORT AND TECHNICAL SUMMARY A) Synthesis and Interpretation: Perform synthesis and interpretation necessary to accomplish Tasks 2 through 4. B) Draft Final Report and Draft Technical Summary: Complete and submit draft final report and Technical Summary to MMS for scientific and editorial review. The report should describe results of Tasks 2 through 4. The Technical Summary should cover all technical Tasks. A copy of the standard MMS formatting requirements for technical summaries and cover/title page specifications for the report will be provided by MMS after contract award. C) Revised, Final Report and Technical Summary: Revise the final report and Technical Summary and complete as per review comments. Provide the rationale in a letter accompanying the final report for any review comments not accommodated. Provide 100 copies of the report, a high-quality master copy, and a PC-compatible digital copy to MMS. Text and tables of the digital copy of the report should in Microsoft (MS) Word 6. Provide bibliographic citations for the final report to MMS also in ProCite 4 or newer (or as a file directly importable into ProCite). Provide a final Technical Summary, revised from the draft as per review comments and a PC-compatible digital copy in MS Word 6 to MMS. HOW TO RESPOND: In order to compete for this contract, a firm must demonstrate that they are qualified to perform the work by providing, by 4:00 P.M., August 28, 2000, a written Technical Proposal and Business Proposal less than 25 pages in length. The Technical Proposal must accurately demonstrate your capabilities and describe technical approach. CAPABILITIES: Your capabilities should be demonstrated through: (1) your key personnel (those who would have primary responsibility for performing and/or managing the study) with their qualifications and specific experience; (2) your organization's experience with this type of work; and (3) your past performance. You must document the experience of your personnel by providing resumes and the experience of your organization by providing references. You must identify the specific tasks each key person is to perform. You must establish your past performance by providing the period of performance, dollar amount, client name and telephone number, for previous work of this nature performed within the last two years. References will be checked. TECHNICAL APPROACH: Your technical approachshould briefly the work you will perform and how you will organize the project. You should include a brief project plan. BUSINESS PROPOSAL: Your business proposal should include your proposed price and pricing basis; identify any necessary subcontractors; and the need for any Government-furnished equipment. EVALUATION: Your capabilities will be evaluated on the basis of the currency, quality and depth of experience of proposed key personnel in working on similar projects and your past performance on these projects. "Similar Project" is meant to convey similarity in topic, methodologies, dollar value, duration and complexity. Your organization's history of successful completion of projects; history of producing high quality reports and other deliverables; history of staying on schedule and within budget will also be used to judge your capabilities. Your technical approach will be evaluated on how well it addresses the work described above and meets the Government's needs. AWARD DECISION: This award will be made on a best-value basis. The government will evaluate each proposal to determine the highest technically rated firm in terms of capability, past performance, and technical approach. Price will be evaluated, but technical merit is more important than price. Among offerors considered to be technically equal, price and other factors will decide the winner. The government may not conduct negotiations so submit your best offer. The total length of the Technical and Business Proposal must not exceed 25 pages. Firms shall submit their proposals in original and two (2) copies to Wallace Adcox, Contracting Officer, Minerals Mangement Service, 381 Elden Street, MS-2500, Herndon, VA 20170-4817. Three (3) additional copies shall be sent to Richard Prentki, PH.D., Minerals Mangement Service, Alaska OCS Region, 949 E. 36 Street, Anchorage, AK 99508. Questions should be faxed or E-mailed as soon as possible to: Fax (703) 787-1087 or E-mail to Wallace.Adcox@mms.gov. Please include your full name, the RFQ number (17141) and title, your organization, complete address, and phone and fax numbers. TELEPHONIC QUESTIONS OR REQUESTS WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED. Posted 07/24/00 (W-SN477956). (0206)

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