Virginia Contracting Activity, P.O. Box 46563, Washington, D.C. 20050-6563

B -- COUNTRY ASSESSMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA SOL MDA90800T0044 DUE 082200 POC Kevin Pryor, Contract Specialist (202) 231-2878 WEB: none, none. E-MAIL: none, pryor_kevin@hotmail.com. This is a modification to the original announcement 148092. The Statement of work the has been changed. The Virginia Contracting Activity on behalf of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is synopsizing/soliciting sources for Country Assessment of South Africa in accordance with the Statement of Work below. Interested parties have 15 (due 082200) days from the publication date of this synopsis/solicitation to submit their cost proposal and technical approach to satisfying this requirement. Responses received without the requested information may be considered non-responsive to the synopsis/solicitation. Oral communications will accepted (202) 231-2878. When responding to this solicitation please refer to solicitation MDA90800T0044. Please indicate business size when submitting a response. Submit responses to the attention of Kevin Pryor, Contracting Specialist, VACA, DAP-2. The following cause are incorporated into the solicitation by reference: FAR 52.212-1, 52.212-3, 52.212-4, and 52.212-5. Award will be based on the contractor's ability to meet the criteria of the statement of work and the most advantageous cost to the Government. 1. PURPOSE: This project provides support to the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the Intelligence Community to develop methodologies in alternative analysis capitalizing on research and baseline information from academic professionals and other experts with unique knowledge of and access to information on specific topics in selected lower priority countries. This project also serves the standing requirements of OSD and Joint Staff for the Joint Strategic Planning System. 2. OBJECTIVE: This is a proof of concept to expand the knowledge base, especially estimative intelligence arena, and will serve as the model for further initiatives in this area. Using expert research and analysis of recent South African history, domestic and economic issues, regional and international relations and influences, and internal and external pressures, the project will develop a set of alternative assessments of South Africa's abilities to meet their national security goals. 3. TASKS: 3.1. The contractor shall develop a systematic plan and methodology for required futures analysis methodologies which considers, but is not limited to, the following drivers in assessing South Africa's future course: Economic Performance. Economics has both aggregate and distributional aspects. Overall, in a climate of general prosperity, citizens and states' leaderships usually are willing to ignore or postpone addressing other sources of dissatisfaction. Aggregate economic performance, however, does not tell the entire story. If the disparity in wealth is vast between a society's or regional system's most and least privileged members, then extralegal and perhaps violent pushes for redress may result. Globalization. Although complex and diffuse, globalization affects attitudes and transactions in a number of ways and is almost certainly a driver of increasing importance. The proliferation of external sources of information has several identifiable effects on a state. Popular expectations can be stoked by living standards prevailing elsewhere; breaking news and sometimes distant disturbances are broadcast directly onto a state's foreign policy agenda (often with an attendant expectation of immediate action); and primary identities and loyalties can become unmoored from the nation-state (and reattached at either a trans- or subnational level). In addition, because of improved communications, pervasive media, travel, and other types of encounter, a transnational convergence of norms appears to be under way in certain areas (e.g., human rights, multilateral approaches to security, business practices, etc). Economic globalization and enmeshment, typified by direct foreign investment and trade, suggest that disrupting beneficial commercial relations is increasingly costly and unattractive. At the same time, such integration creates new dependencies and vulnerabilities (e.g., to information operations) and brings to the fore a diverse set of nongovernmental actors. Last, given multiple competing providers and pressures for revenue, rampant proliferation and technology transfer appear to be facts of modern life. Performance and Cohesion of the State. Much as the state is buffeted by changes from above, so too is it by pressures from below. States are expected to provide or facilitate provision of sufficient goods and services for the reasonable well being of citizens, as well as outlets for expression of political sentiments and demands. Without adequate performance on these two scores, the effectiveness and legitimacy of a government is questioned, with loss of regime support or even open opposition the result. When societies are fractured by ethnic, religious, or linguistic cleavages, poor government performance takes on the added, charged qualities of discrimination and exclusion. In the case of governments viewed as low functioning and illegitimate, states are vulnerable toco-optation by a variety of illicit authorities. These authorities may be narcotraffickers, crime syndicates, tycoons/oligarchs, self-interested despots, or others who move to occupy the shells of previous government institutions. Persistence or Intensification of Interstate Animosity or Amity. This is a classic factor of military and diplomatic history. The immutability of longstanding rivalries or alliances, however, should not be treated as an analytical given. Under certain structural conditions, (for example, external security guarantees, development of viable multilateral conflict-reduction/prevention mechanisms, commercial compatibilities, complex interdependence, etc.) perceptions of mutual interest may change, and even fairly acute competitions may change, and even fairly acute competitors may ebb. Changing saliency's of territorial disputes can be an important catalyst for this driving force, either in its relaxation or its aggravation. Configuration and Posture of Military Establishments. This driver has both procurement and deployment facets. Can one anticipate high-visibility shifts in weapon acquisition practices (e.g., WMD, long-range missilery, ballistic missile defenses, advanced conventional assets or canceled programs) that would be interpreted as impacting relevant military balances? Similarly, can one anticipate high-visibility shifts in strategy, doctrine, operational concepts, and force dispositions that would be interpreted as either conducive to the offensive and provocative or static and unthreatening? One can fairly think of military programs as an outgrowth of other more fundamental factors rather than as a cause per se. The methodology will permit the use of changing military establishments as a cause or driver or causal factor; however, because the often-unintended consequences of civil defense and military modernization initiatives (e.g., pursuing national missile defense as a moral rather than a strategic issue) full understanding of national character, as well as real and perceived pressures, is essential. Receptivity to US Influence and/or Presence. In the next 20 years, some states will change, perhaps dramatically, in terms of their perceived vulnerability, independence, and cultural congruence with the United States. The felt need for a protector, ability to resist US prescriptions, and reaction against what is attributed to be American secular-consumer culture and "hyperpower" will all affect other states' embrace of common cause with the United States. This driver, like military establishments, can be thought of as a result rather than a cause. What is central, however, are factors that drive instability and outbreak of violence (of which the degree of stabilization played by the United States is a key ingredient). Recognizing and interpreting domestic factors that condition local and national receptivities to US presence is necessary. Demographic Pressures and Deformities. Overcrowding may be important in its own right as a spur to human aggression, and population is certainly important when a group's numbers outstrip the resources available to provide for it. Urbanization, the concentration of persons in large cities, usually will exacerbate this population-social service mismatch. Aggregate population aside, distortions to a normal demographic profile also will have stability implications. In a rapidly growing population, a "youth bulge" of young men finding inadequate job opportunities is a combustible mix. At the other end of the demographic spectrum, some societies are experiencing a "graying" population, which has nondefense (for example, labor pool and entitlements payments drain) and defense (for example, recruitment, manning, and technology strategy) implications. Other processes that can sharply upset familiar demographic patterns include the rapid or sustained influx of immigrants (sometimes resulting in xenophobic and reactionary politics), as well as pandemic losses to both new and once-controlled diseases (with attendant leadership and brain drain costs). Ideas, Ideologies, and Political Rallying Cries. Given an interpretation that the end of the Cold War, "ideational" factors in foreign policy analysis have received greater attention. Because some type of virulent ideology (i.e., National Socialism and Communism) propelled this century's most destructive crusades, reflecting on what the next "-ism" might be is not unreasonable. A related interest would be leadership generational change; specifically, and how younger individuals (with sometimes markedly different formative experiences) produce changed attitudes, perspectives, and potentialities by the time they take office. Environmental Carrying Capacity. This factor helps define whether other situations (e.g., demographics and economic activity) are problematic or not. Environmental carrying capacity has resource (supply) and pollution (resource degradation) subdimensions, and of course these are interrelated. State leaders will assess the adequacy of supplies for sustenance (food and water), habitat (land and clean air), and raw materials (e.g., oil). Also, identifiable external sources that foul otherwise sufficient resources will be viewed negatively. Official responses to shrinking stocks of resources or resources that are being despoiled can become desperate and/or acquisitive. 3.2. Using this construct, the contractor shall assess whether or not South Africa can successfully realize its national strategic goals. Using the above drivers, the study will posit two to three alternative strategic courses for South Africa, and assess the most likely outcome. Special focus will be on South African national security goals and those factors and/or influences which would serve to facilitate its ability to maintain and further its national security objectives. 4. DELIVERABLES: The contractor shall provide a methodology for alternative analysis and a final assessment of South Africa's ability to successfully realize its national strategic goals. The final product(s) will be in html and .gif files on CD and in hard copy formats. 4.1. To ensure that all work is performed in accordance with the tasks specified in this portion of the SOW, acceptance of all deliverables are to be made to the Contracting Officer's Representative(COR). 4.2 INSPECTION AND ACCEPTANCE: Inspection and acceptance of deliverables shall be at the Defense Intelligence Agency, Washington, D.C. 20304. To ensure that all work is performed in accordance with the tasks specified in this portion of the SOW, acceptance of all deliverables shall be made to the COR. 5. SPECIAL PROVISIONS: 5.1. SECURITY REQUIREMENT: Top Sceret security clearance is required. 5.2. PERSONNEL: The selection of personnel to be assigned to the tasks set out in this SOW shall be at the discretion of the contractor, subject to the approval of the DIA Global Coverage Program Manager/COR. 5.3. GOVERNMENT FURNISHED DATA: As desired by the government in performing the tasks and determined by the government to be essential to this analysis. 5.4. TRAVEL: A minimum of three trips to the DIA in Washington D.C. and two trips to the National Ground Intelligence Center in Charlottesville, Virginia. 5.5. PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE: All work shall be completed within six months from time of contract award. 5.6. NOTICE REGARDING LATE DELIVERY: In the event the contractor anticipates difficulty in complying with the contract delivery schedule, the government may extend the due date depending on the nature and complexity of the task(s). 5.7. PLACE OF PERFORMANCE: With the exception of discussions with government personnel, required reference and access to classified materials, all work shall be performed at the contractor's facility. Posted 08/07/00 (W-SN482996). (0220)

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