B -- ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING SERVICES

Notice Date

August 29, 2000

Adminstrative Office

Health Care Financing Administration; 7500 Security Blvd.; Baltimore, MD 21244

ZIP Code

21244

Point of Contact

Miki Lewis, Contract Specialist, (410) 786-5461

Description

The Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) is conducting a market survey to determine the availability of businesses to perform econometric forecasting services. You are invited to prepare capabilities statement, which specifically addresses the requirements outlined in this notice. HCFA requires macroeconomic forecasts of detailed sectors of the United States Economy and, especially, the U.S. health sector. Input price indexes that are used to adjust for inflation for nearly all of the annual Medicare program expenditures require these forecasts. At a level of spending of $130.6 billion in the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (HI) and $82.3 billion in the Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund (SMI) in FY 1999, an error of a tenth of a percent equates to a $185.9 million difference in projected expenditures. With this level of taxpayer dollars at issue, it is imperative for HCFA to have a forecasting firm of demonstrated competence and credibility. Therefore, prospective candidates must demonstrate sufficient resources and experience to prove their ability to perform tasks that include, but are not limited, to the following: ? Candidates must provide a set of consistent, integrated models that will produce short-term and long-term forecasts of the U.S. economy and of health specific variables. These must be supplemented by comprehensive supporting databases. Candidates must provide HCFA electronic access to the models and databases via a means compatible with HCFA?s internal systems. ? HCFA must also have access to a database consisting of economic, demographic, and financial time series at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. The database must contain the following source data: 1) the Bureau of Economic Analysis? National Income and Product Accounts complete inventory of data series; 2) Bureau of Labor Statistics? data on labor force, employment, hours, earnings, productivity, consumer and producer prices; 3) Bureau of the Census? data series on the U.S. Population and its characteristics; and 4) other data series of private sector sources. ? The candidate must also provide support, documentation, and maintenance of all data bases to update timeseries as soon as they become available from the source. HCFA must also be provided with software and support of software packages capable of time series management, econometric analysis, statistical analysis, model building, simulation, report writing, and graphics capabilities. ? The candidate must also employ persons with proven education, skills, and experience to address key issues such as the analysis of the interaction of health sector and economy-wide economic, statistical, and demographic trends as well as offer expertise on approaches to financial and economic analysis, input/output analysis, and other health sector cost issues. Interested parties should submit a written capability statement no later than September 12, 2000. This statement should be substantiated by complete and detailed technical literature. At a minimum, address the following: ? The number of years the candidate has been performing work similar to that described above. A minimum of 5 years experience with this type of task is required. ? The number of clients and types of projects for which a candidate has actually performed similar forecasting work of the U.S. economy, as well as individual health sectors. ? Describe the candidates? track record for existing models? accuracy in terms of actual versus forecasted values for at least 5 years for forecasting detailed dis-aggregated sectors of the economy. ? Provide documentation that demonstrates the candidates? understanding of the linkages between the health sector and the U.S. economy. ? Describe your demonstrated availability of an adequate quantity and quality of resources to support the services described above. ? Company literature with name, e-mail address and phone number of a point of contact. ? Your business size status under NAICS code 541720 with a size standard of $5.0M average annual sales over the past 3 years. (The former SIC code was 8732). The purpose of this Sources Sought Announcement is to identify potential responsible sources only and does not constitute a Request for Proposal. The Government does not intend to award a contract on the basis of this notice or otherwise pay for any information solicited. Documentation should be submitted to: HCFA, Acquisition and Grants Group, Mailstop C2-21-15, 7500 Security Boulevard, Baltimore, MD 21244, Attention: Ms. Miki Lewis.

Record

Loren Data Corp. 20000831/BSOL003.HTM (D-242 SN491256)