R -- ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING AND ECONOMIC SERVICES

Notice Date

November 16, 2000

Contracting Office

Health Care Financing Administration, Acquisition and Grants Group, C2-21-15, 7500 Security Boulevard, Baltimore, MD., 21244-1850

ZIP Code

21244-1850

Solicitation Number

RFP-HCFA-01-0007

Response Due

January 22, 2001

Point of Contact

Miki Lewis , (410) 786-5461or Andy Mummert, Contracting Officer

E-Mail Address

Click here to contact the Contract Specialist via (MLEWIS@HCFA.GOV)

Description

The Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) has an ongoing requirement for economic forecasts and economic analysis. HCFA requires macroeconomic forecasts of detailed sectors of the United States Economy and especially the U.S. health sector. Input price indexes that are used to adjust for inflation for nearly all of the annual Medicare program expenditures require these forecasts. At a level of spending of $130.6 billion in the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund and $82.3 billion in the Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund in FY 1999, an error of a tenth of a percent equates to a $185.9 million difference in projected expenditures. With this level of taxpayer dollars at issue, it is imperative for HCFA to have a forecasting firm of demonstrated competence and credibility. Therefore, the successful candidate must provide a set of consistent, integrated models that will produce short term and long term forecasts of the U.S. economy and of health specific variables. These models must be supplemented by comprehensive supporting databases. Candidates must provide HCFA electronic access to the models and databases via a means compatible with HCFA's internal systems. HCFA must also have access to a database consisting of economic, demographic and financial time series at monthly, quarterly and annual frequencies. The database must contain the following source data: 1) the Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Income and Product Accounts complete inventory of data series; 2) Bureau of Labor Statistics and data on labor force, employment, hours, earnings, productivity, consumer and producer prices; 3) Bureau of the Census and data series on the U.S. population and its characteristics; and 4) Other data series of private sector sources. The candidate must also provide support, documentation and maintenance of all data bases to update time series as soon as they become available from the source. HCFA must also be provided with software and support of software packages capable of time series management, econometric analysis, statistical analysis, model building, simulation, report writing and graphics capabilities. Solicitation number RFP-HCFA-01-0007 is issued as a request for proposal and will be awarded as a cost plus fixed fee/level of effort. Clauses at FAR 52.217-9 (option to extend the term of the contract) and FAR 52.217-5 (evaluation of options) will be included in the RFP. This acquisition is unrestricted full and open to both small and large businesses. All responsible sources may submit a proposal. The North American Industry Classification Systems (NAICS -- formerly SIC) code for this requirement is 541720 which defines a small business as a company with $5.0 million (or less) of average annual sales over the past three years. The proposed period of performance is a 12-month base year with four one-year options. This solicitation may be obtained by accessing the Internet through the following web site: www.hcfa.gov/contracts. If you experience difficulty accessing the solicitation through the Internet you may request a copy in writing to mlewis@hcfa.gov. The solicitation is anticipated to be released on December 13, 2000. The estimated closing date for receipt of proposals will be at 2:00 p.m. (local time) on January 22, 2001.

Web Link

Click here to download a copy of the RFP (www.hcfa.gov/contracts)

Record

Loren Data Corp. 20001120/RSOL008.HTM (W-321 SN5068J5)