Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Procurement Operations Branch, MS2500, 381 Elden Street, Herndon, Virginia 20170-4817

B -- THE SO2 AND NO2 INCREMENT ANALYSIS FOR THE BRETON NATIONAL WILDERNESS AREA SOL 1435-01-00-RP-31065 DUE 071200 POC Michael W. Hargrove, Contracting Officer, 703-787-1367/Rhonda Fernandez, Procurement Technician, 703-787-1348 E-MAIL: Contracting Officer and Procurement Technician e-mail, michael.hargrove@mms.gov and rhonda.fernandez@mms.gov. The Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS), intends to competitively award a contract to conduct a research study for the Gulf of Mexico Regional Office. INTRODUCTION: The Clean Air Act limits how SO2 and NO2 concentrations may increase over the Breton National Wilderness Areas (BNWA), but there is no information at present that demonstrates whether that area is in compliance with the mandated limits. This difficulty exists because two variables in each increment are undefined. First, baseline concentrations do not exist for the appropriate years, 1977 for SO2 and 1988 for NO2. Second, accurate baseline and current emissions inventories are not available for estimating present concentrations over the BNWA. The status of the SO2 and NO2 increments needs to be evaluated. At present, the BNWA is surrounded by onshore SOx and NOx sources to the north and west and offshore sources to the south and east. The magnitude and distribution of the sources introduce the possibility that SO2 or NO2 concentrations in the BNWA may exceed regulatory limits, which could result in regulatory consequences affecting several Federal (Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), and MMS) and State (LA, MS, AL, FL) Agencies and the groups they regulate. The Federal Land Manager, the U.S. FWS, has expressed concerns that the SO2 and NO2 increments may be consumed on a cumulative basis and requested a cumulative increment analysis be performed. The increment analysis is needed to determine the degree of increment consumption. This study will evaluate the OCS contribution to SOx and NOx levels over the BNWA. This study will also evaluate the contribution of the onshore and offshore emission sources to the existing cumulative SO2 and NO2 levels over the BNWA. STUDY OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study are to: (1) Select meteorological and air quality models based on the representative simulations of present concentrations; (2) Compile, archive, and analyze meteorological and air quality data for model simulations; and provide the Graphical User Interface and display software routines for plotting meteorological and emissions data; (3) Simulate air concentrations over the BNWA for SO2 for the year 1977, for NO2 for the year 1988, and for SO2 and NO2 for the current years, determine their respective increments, and compare the estimated air concentrations with the limits of PSD increment under the Clean Air Act; and archive the compiled data, and model input and output data; and (4) Provide an Interim Report on model evaluation for episode type study, a Data Report, including User's Guide, and a Final Report on the air quality. A. GENERAL PROGRAM SCHEDULING: The projected period of performance for this study shall be forty-eight (48) months and have a cost range of $450,000 to $500,000. The Contractor shall also assist the MMS staff in testing the software program and the model simulations used in this study. B. STUDY AREA: The study domain for the emissions will be approximately a 100-km radius of the designated Breton Class I Area. However, for meteorological modeling, the domain of the study area will include both offshore and onshore meteorology, i.e., including the Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf west of 87.5 W longitude and the onshore region. Furthermore, any very large emission sources out to 200 km or more from the Breton Class Area shall also be included in the modeling. C. SCOPE OF WORK: This study is to investigate the contribution from the OCS emission sources in the Breton area to the increment air concentration consumption over the Breton National Wilderness Area, as follows: Task 1. Model Selection: The main purpose of this study is to conduct air quality simulations to establish the incremental air concentrations for SO2 and NO2 for one year spanning from the year 2000 to 2001 in the Breton Area. In order to achieve this goal, the Contractor shall select the suitable and best meteorological and air quality models. The Contractor shall conduct a literature review of various meteorological and air quality models to select two meteorological models and two air quality models for episode type analysis, and discuss the mathematical assumptions, the advantage and disadvantage or limitation of each model. Finally, the Contractor shall select one (1) meteorological model and one (1) air quality model for the actual increment consumption determination. This information will be provided in the Interim Report and Final Report. Task 2. Analysis of Meteorological and Air quality Data: Task 2.1. Analysis of Meteorological Data: The meteorological data are needed as input into an air quality model or the meteorological model to generate the meteorological variables for driving the air quality model. Currently, there are two (2) monitoring programs for addressing the meteorological data collections. One of these programs consists of two (2) MMS-funded projects: one to collect meteorological observations (Profilers and Data Collection for the Boundary Layer Study in the Western and Central Gulf of Mexico; Contract 30854) and another to study boundary layer characteristics (The Boundary Layer Study in the Western and Central Gulf of Mexico; Contract 30919). The other monitoring program is the Breton Aerometric Monitoring Program (BAMP) program, which is funded by the Offshore Operators Committee (OOC). Other data sources such as archives in the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) (www.ncdc.gov) and data from other studies may also be used. The Contractor shall collect and compile the data from various sources. The Contractor shall analyze or compile the upper air soundings and surface meteorological data from the BAMP program, Atmospheric Profilers, the Boundary Layer study program, and other available data sources (e.g., remote sensing data) for input into the model and for preparing meteorological input data files for the air quality modeling. This information will be summarized in the Interim Report, possibly updated in the Final Report, and provided in the Data Report I and expanded in Data Report II. The Contractor shall perform the following subtasks. A. Data Quality Assurance/Control: The available data that have gone through QA/QC include the MMS funded study (Boundary Layer Study), BAMP program, and buoy data. The upper air soundings and other data must be checked and verified through QA/QC procedure for meteorological and air quality modeling, because these data may not be free of errors. B. Objective Data Analysis: The wind field is needed for air quality simulations. For air quality episodes (maximum) modeling, hourly meteorological data are required as input data into an air quality model. The meteorological data include the surface meteorological observations and upper air meteorological observations. The Contractor shall develop the methods for analyzing the three-dimensional wind field, and display and archive the meteorological data. The Contractor shall also deal with the missing data or incomplete data, especially in data sparse area(s), that may affect predicted air concentrations. C. Data Assimilation (4-D): To enhance model prediction and performance, the Contractor shall perform data assimilation by merging the observational data and model output data. Thus, the Contractor shall develop the methods to obtain the consistent set of data for model initialization. D. Mixing Height Calculations: The hourly mixing height is needed in air quality modeling. Thus, the Contractor shall develop an approach to calculate mixing heights over water and demonstrate how to analyze the diurnal, monthly, and seasonal variations of mixing heights and examine the causes of these variations. Task 2.2. Analysis of Ambient Air quality Data: The ambient pollutant levels arising from onshore or offshore emission sources will affect the predicted air concentrations at a receptor location in the Breton area. The initial and boundary conditions are also important for air quality simulations. Thus, the Contractor shall develop the method to generate the initial and boundary conditions for input into the air quality model. The Contractor shall also provide pre-processor and post-processor for data processing and data visualization for Tasks 2.1 and 2.2. Task 3. Development of Gridded Emissions Data: The MMS has currently funded two (2) database development projects Breton Offshore Activities Database System (BOADS) and Gulfwide Offshore Activities Database System (GOADS) to collect the emissions data and to develop the database software systems for platform and non-platform emissions sources. BOADS is a database software system to archive the monthly emissions data in the Breton area, which is within 100 km of the Breton Islands. GOADS is a database software system to archive the monthly, seasonal, and annual emissions data in the entire Gulf of Mexico region. The emissions inventories for the Breton area can be obtained either from BOADS or GOADS. The Contractor shall also include mobile sources in the air quality modeling, which are provided for in the GOADS project, but not in the BOADS project. The BOADS and GOADS database systems are written in MS Visual Basic and Oracle. The calculated emissions are available in ASCII files for modeling. The 1977 and 1988 years baseline emissions data for the OCS (to be provided by MMS) will be used in the increment consumption analyses under Task 6 and 7. The year 2000 emissions data for the onshore areas will be used for Tasks 4, 5, and 6.2. The Contractor shall use these databases (BOADS and GOADS) or other available MMS databases to prepare the emission input files for the air quality model using the emissions data from BOADS, GOADS, or other sources in ASCII format, which should be compatible to the air quality model. The Contractor shall provide software tools for importing the emissions data into the air quality model and propose how to display and archive the emissions data. This information will be summarized in the Interim Report and provided in the Data Report I and Data Report II. Task 4. Episode Type Study: The purpose of the episode type (maximum) study is to make preliminary assessment of the accuracy of input data and the evaluation of the meteorological model and air quality model performances. If the model performance is judged to be satisfactory, and with the consent of the Contracting Officer, then the Contractor is allowed to proceed to the next phase of investigation. The selected episodes shall be with the approval of the Contracting Officer. This information will be summarized in the Interim Report and provided in Data Report I. The Contractor shall perform the following subtasks. A. Episode Analysis: The Contractor shall select several periods of data for modeling the diurnal variations of air concentration in the Breton area for the annual period of approximately March 2000 to April 2001. The Contractor shall establish the acceptance criteria for model performance evaluation. The Contractor shall perform the statistical data analysis and time series analysis, and interpret the difference between the predicted air concentration for SO2 and NO2 and the observed data. The Contractor shall examine the possible sources of errors and make error reduction. The Contractor shall also display the results in graphical forms. B. Model Performance Evaluation: The BAMP program has established an air quality-monitoring plan for the Breton area. One year of data will be collected from approximately March 2000 to April 2001. Three monitoring sites have been selected to collect the air quality data. These data can be utilized for model performance evaluations. The modeling results must meet the acceptance criteria. If the results of model simulations fail to meet the acceptance criteria, the Contractor shall suggest areas of model improvement. The Contractor shall perform the statistical data analysis and model evaluations for the selected episodes for SO2 andNO2. The Contractor shall model different types of emissions sources. Task 5. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses: Model improvement can be achieved by sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The Contractor shall perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for the air quality and meteorological models. Thus, the Contractor shall develop the method of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The Contractor shall identify and test model characteristics in response to the input data such as input parameters, initial condition, and boundary condition, etc. This information will be provided in the Interim Report and Final Report. Task 6. Air Quality Simulations: This information will be provided in Data Report II and summarized in the Final Report. Task 6.1. Establishment of PSD Baseline Air Concentrations: The baseline emissions inventories are available from the BOADS and GOADS programs, and other available sources. The Contractor shall use these OCS baseline emissions inventories in the Breton area and run the air quality model to estimate the historical air concentrations of OCS emissions to the air concentrations for SO2 and NO2. The Contractor shall perform time series analyses for calculated air concentrations of SO2 for the year 1977 and establish the baseline air concentrations, and provide the time-averaged air concentrations over the Breton area in accordance with the requirements under the Clean Air Act. The Contractor shall also perform similar analyses for NO2 for the year 1988. The Contractor shall prepare and submit the meteorological data used for modeling in the Data Report II. Task 6.2 Air Quality Simulations for the Current Years: The main purpose of this study is to conduct air quality simulations to establish the incremental air concentrations for SO2 and NO2 for one (1) year from the year 2000 to 2001 in the Breton Area. After obtaining the satisfactory results of model simulations based on model evaluations for the episode type study, the next step is to perform model simulations for the hourly air concentration over a period of one entire year spanning 2000 to 2001. Thus, the Contractor shall perform the following specific tasks of air quality simulations. The Contractor shall describe the approach to perform the air quality simulations in accordance with the requirements under the Clean Air Act. The Contractor shall investigate the difference between the estimated air concentration and the observed data. The Contractor shall perform model evaluation and sensitivity analysis as described above in Tasks 4 and 5. Task 7. Air Quality Assessment: The Contractor shall assess the incremental air concentration and its impact on the Breton area. The Contractor shall assess the baseline, present, and change in the incremental SO2 and NO2 concentrations over the Breton Area. This will be provided in the Final Report. Task 8. Final Report: The Contractor shall prepare a Final Report that summarizes the results of the work as described in the Scope of Work in this study. The Contractor shall follow the guidelines in the Contract Reports Specifications to describe how to document the work performed in this study in the Final Report. Task 9. Scientific Review Board: The Contractor shall work with the three (3) person SRB, who are to review scientific progress and all draft, and final reports. The SRB shall attend the post-award meeting to occur soon after contract award and two subsequent interim meetings. HOW TO RESPOND: To compete for this contract, an offeror must demonstrate that they are qualified to perform the work by providing, not later than 12 JULY 2000, a Capabilities Statement, describing in detail: (A) Key personnel with the expertise and experience in conducting the described multi-disciplinary program, and their qualifications for performing or managing the project; and producing a high quality document. Particularly relevant is their expertise and knowledge in the areas of (1) meteorological and air quality modeling, (2) boundary layer meteorology, particularly in the coastal zone, (3) emission inventory, model and data source, (4) meteorological and air quality data analyses, and (5) air-sea interaction. Offeror must also demonstrate their ability to do the work, and an understanding of the directed missions of the MMS. Principal scientists must collectively illustrate relevant experience in these areas of expertise through authorship in appropriate peer-reviewed publications, and/or work history, and/or professional affiliations. (B) The organization's expertise relevant to the objectives of this study and a description of facilities and resources to be used and how they relate to the objectives and tasks of this study. (C) In addition, the Offeror is to submit four (4) names, with resumes, for possible membership on the Scientific Review Board (SRB). The SRB must be composed of non-Government workers with demonstrable expertise in similar projects. The Offeror shall provide information (same as required for the Key Personnel) demonstrating expertise in one or more areas as listed above for each nominee. The SRB shall attend the post-award meeting to occur soon after contract award and two subsequent interim meetings; and (D) Specificreferences (including project identifier and description, period of performance, dollar amount, and client name and phone number) for previous work comparable to that described in this announcement that your organization or personnel is currently performing or has completed within the last three (3) years. REFERENCES WILL BE CHECKED. CAPABILITY STATEMENTS WILL BE EVALUATED ON THE FOLLOWING: The Capability Statement will be evaluated on the basis of A. Key Personnel: (1) skills, abilities, education, and professional credentials, experience, expertise, and knowledge of the key personnel in the areas of (a) meteorological and air quality modeling; (b) the atmospheric boundary layer processes, atmospheric dispersion over land, water, and the coastal area, and air-sea interaction; (c) regulatory air quality models and regulatory requirements and compliance; (d) emission inventories, model and sources, and air quality and meteorological data, especially in the Gulf of Mexico region; (e) software development and data display and visualization; (f) performing air quality evaluation; (g) remote sensing ; and (h) availability of personnel resources and a well mix and balance of personnel, education and experience; (2) current quality and depth of experience in working on similar projects (similar in size, scope, complexity, duration, and dollar value); (3) publication history; (4) demonstrate the capabilities and experience in computer software development, data integration and display, data archive and retrieval, and model improvement, air quality simulation and compliance. B. Project Manager. (1) demonstrated leadership ability required for the coordination to complete the study; (2) experience in managing a large multi-disciplinary team; (3) ability to control cost and to keep project performance and document preparation on schedule; (4) Program Manager's relevant background, education, experience, and accomplishments in project management, developing and evaluating air quality models; (5) experience in managing projects of similar scope, size, and complexity; and (6) familiarity with a variety of regulatory air quality and meteorological models. C. Organization's Past Performance and Experience: (1) Expertise and experience of the organization and its team in conducting projects similar to the current project (meteorological and air quality modeling, data collection, and emission inventory (similar to the current project in scope, size, level of effort, and Posted 06/20/00 (W-SN466717). (0172)

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